Ladies and gent, here's your likely five come Oscar night:
David Fincher, Benjamin Button
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk
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I may be forced to shelf my pessimism here with the DGA's being the same five titles as the PGA's. So, Kevin, forgive the skeptic that hours ago said that The Dark Knight was not a lock and the Nolan would probably be a lone director. It still may not happen for any of these given pictures...but all five of them picked up nods from three of the four major guilds. So, all we can do now is wait another couple of weeks to see what will happen for sure.
ReplyDeleteI made sure to put "likely". Nothing is certain. However, If I were a betting man, I would not bet against these five.
ReplyDeleteThings are looking great for The Dark Knight, that's for sure. It's recovered from a lot of the snubs with the guild support, it still has retained a lot of its own support from people which means it could definitely have a shot.
ReplyDeleteI'm reminded a bit from last year when Into the Wild was sure fire to get all these nominations and was left cold except for Holbrook. The European section of the Academy helped bring Atonement ahead of Wild, but I think the European community has already grabbed onto Slumdog, which is a lock already. This might work into TDK's favor, but as we all know, Oscar morning can have some shockers here and there (last year: Tommy Lee Jones, Laura Linney, Jason Reitman, Away from Her screenplay, etc.)
Definitely Josh. I'm excited for Jan 22. I hope the Dark Knight can maintain strength. Actually, I don't mind if all five made the top five. I'd love for the Wrestler to get more love, but I have to take the good with the bad.
ReplyDeleteTwo things i cannot believe in Awards Circuit:
ReplyDelete- John Patrick Shanley considered in top 5 for best director after DGA announced. I mean, really ? Doubt is about ensemble, nothing more really.
- Wall-E over TDK in best picture? I mean... are you crazy? I would love to see Wall-E been in the BP top 5 but eliminate Frost which by far the weakest film in the top 6, not TDK!
As far as post DGA considerationes, i think Howard is going to be snubbed again by AMPAS. Aronofsky and Demme, even Daldry have shots at the 5th spot. Shanley? Come on
It's not in the Top 5. I predicted him for a DGA nom.
ReplyDeleteAnd about the Best Picture predictions...its all relative in the end. We have no idea what's going to happen
I just don't see anything budging the Best Picture race now. There's often a surprise in the Director category, but this year I'm not so sure... I suppose Aronofsky, Demme or Leigh could edge out either Howard or Nolan, but I'm honestly not counting on it. I'm expecting any major surprises at this point to arrive in the supporting acting categories.
ReplyDeleteSorry to say but TDK in Best Picture in undeniable. Ypu have to be blind and really enclosed not to notice.
ReplyDeleteIn other news: people, check out the Golden Globes website. Apparently, Hathaway already won for Best Actress in Drama...
Mistake or leak ?
Re: Anne Hathaway "winning"... wow. I actually do expect her to win, too, and if she does a big deal could be made out of this even if it is just a mistake.
ReplyDeleteI never thought Wall-e stood a chance. It's destined for the Best Animated Feature category.
ReplyDeleteI have to agree with Keith on WALL-E. IMO, it always has been and always will be a pipe dream and far more of a long shot than The Dark Knight was. It has its own category, so why not be happy with it winning the category it will win?
ReplyDeleteLol, no worries Aaron, it's still a completely valid point about Into the Wild, as are Keith's observations that Into the Wild only lost out because the European section of the academy went for Atonement. However, it is important to note that Into the Wild did NOT pick up a DGA nomination, which tends to be the best barometer for both Best Picture and Best Director. But with two British directors (Boyle and Nolan), I think the European section is taken care of.