That's what Lee Hernandez wonders in our most recent update...
"Industry Veteran Jennifer Jason Leigh was the frontrunner in this category for several months but recently, she seems like she's not even a lock for a nomination. Her film, Margot at the Wedding, co-starring Nicole Kidman, is probably the most divisive film of 2007. Noah Baumbach, who penned the script for the Oscar nominated The Squid and the Whale, seems to have written characters that really get on people's nerves and under their skin. Unless the studio rallies behind JJL, the likelihood she will be nominated for a supporting actress Oscar is highly unlikely right now".
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Who are your Best Supporting Actress contenders?
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I have to respectfully disagree about Swinton and Ryan: I think they have a much stronger chance than you're giving them credit for.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I'm very excited that we are like-minded about Marisa Tomei: I think she'll be the comeback of the year (depending on Julia Roberts' performance in Charlie Wilson's War).
I haven't even seen Atonement yet, but if Ronan doesn't make it in, everyone. will. die.
ReplyDeleteI'm warning ya'll now...
:D
Hmmm, if Amy Adams got nominated for an early released film like Junebug then I wouldnt count out Ryan for GBG.
ReplyDeleteAmy Adams did get nominated for an early released film; but to be totally honest, Adams was better in Junebug than Ryan is in Gone Baby Gone.
ReplyDeleteRyan is good -- don't get me wrong -- but she isn't PERFECT like Amy Adams was in Junebug so she is vulnerable to a snub. If Maria Bello cannot be nominated for two stellar performances (the mentioned History of Violence and the earlier release The Cooler) I could also see Miss Ryan not getting an invite.
Amy Ryan's performance is not the selling point of GBG the way Amy Adams was Junebug's selling point and standout.
ReplyDeleteMyles:
ReplyDeleteI do think Swinton and Ryan are in the running, however, when I read reviews for "Gone Baby Gone" and "Michael Clayton," these reviews focused a great deal more on the Affleck's in the former, and on George Clooney & Tom Wilkinson in the latter.
Nearly every review for 2005's "Junebug" singled out Amy Adams as the film's best actress (granted, supporting actress). Critics also cemented their vote for her in print by saying things like "I hope the Academy remembers this performance come Oscar time!"
Jennifer Hudson enjoyed similar support for "Dreamgirls," and to many (not to me) she was seen as the best thing about the film. Similarly, Adrianna Barazza, and Rinko Kikuchi recieved great reviews for "Babel" last year.
My point is that although we are all desperate to finally understand this very weak race, the reality is that we have yet to find legitimate contenders to support. Swinton's reviews are not undeniably great, and some critics do not even mention Ryan in their entire reviews.
By contrast, Marisa Tomei's performance in Lumet's picture seems to have the support of at least some critics, and AMPAS might honor her with a nomination like they did Francis McDormand for "North Country." Clearly, Maria Bello's work ought to have been honored, but they chose to go with a former nominee because they weren't sure.
The only way I see Tilda getting nominated is if Michael Clayton can score a Best Picture nomination.
Ryan only gets nominated if buzz about HER performance, not the film, continues to grow as weeks pass.
I REALLY REALLY HOPE that Charlize Theron moves to this category where she belongs. "Elah" is the TLJ's show, and Theron is a supporting player in the film. SHe is amazing in it, and has reviews to prove it from The New Yorker, and many other highly trusted magazines.
I only tout Swinton and Ryan so much because there's such minimal competition. I would be in favor of Vanessa Redgrave, except that I'm inclined to think only one Briony will be nominated for Atonement, and that Ronan has the best reviews of the three (I haven't read too many raves for Redgrave's role). I'm also somewhat skeptical of Charlie Wilson's War in general (it's currently the top contender that will likely fail), so I'm not quite sure about Roberts until we see reviews, though for now she is my top dark horse. With Jennifer Jason Leigh essentially out of the picture, Swinton and Ryan could end up with nominations simply because there's no other major cometition (regardless of their performances' respective quality). I certainly agree with the points made about both of them, but I just think there are stronger cases against most of the competition.
ReplyDeleteBut hey, I could be completely off. When Charlie Wilson's War is released, that'll certainly help.
As a side note, you know what this category really needs? Helena Bonham Carter. She'd have been a shoe-in if the film was even half-good. Now her odds are slim...
I doubt Helena will be joining this race. The studio has made it abundantly clear she is a co-lead. How foolish. She stands little chance at being nominated there. Here she would fare much better. Still, something tells me "Sweeny Todd" will not recieve ANY nominations, as Burton's actors typically aren't nominated for Oscars.
ReplyDeleteI think Bonham Carter has a bigger canges to win in the supporting category, but I saw Ryan, and my perception she's oustanding.
ReplyDeleteWhat about foreign actresses like Fernanda Montenegro and Tabu?
Fernanda Montenegro is an academy Award Nominee and most reviews say she's a stellar appereance of Bardem's mother. Tabu is the best part of The namesake and now she has campaign for B.S.A. she's a more Oscarish role: a lovely and interesting mother and wife...
Anonymous 5:35 - You're right. And someone made the suggestion that Carter went lead because she didn't want to compete with Cate Blanchett for Supporting. I think it was a bad idea, especially since she doesn't stand out in the early feedback from those who have seen the film. Either she's barely mentioned or not at all.
ReplyDeleteI disagree that with you that Sweeney will NOT get any nominations. It's true that Burton's actors have always been ignored (except for Martin Landau), but I think it will be different this time. This movie is Depp's show and he will draw the box office. The film is being marketed around him, his face as Sweeney is everywhere now. Even if this pic doesn't get a nod for anything else, he will still get a Best Actor nomination, there's almost no doubt about that.
Of course, anything could happen, but I really don't see him getting knocked out of the race unless he or the picture gets really bad reviews (which I highly doubt will happen, at least as far as his performance).
I can see Todd getting a few more nominations than just lead actor. I am not thinking Best Picture or anything that grand; but I can see it picking up an art direction nomination (Didn't Sleepy Hollow get one for this too?). Some of the Sweeney Todd talk has nothing to do with the point of this article ... but I do second and third those voices who said Bonham Carter should have ran in this race. The Academy may think it is too soon to award Blanchett with another Oscar so soon. This makes it a shame that this respected actress who has been overlooked in the past and overshadowed by her co-stars in other films might have been honored in this VERY category this year with an actual trophy if some of the Academy actually wants to share-the-wealth so to speak. I, too, don't see her getting a lead actress nomination unless she is TOTALLY deserving of a nomination.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I would like to see Theron tried in this category. Sarandon was great in her bit part, but Theron's role was much larger and it might be remembered in this weaker race of actresses.
Just to throw another name out there -- I WOULD LOVE to see Kelly MacDonald finally get a little love for her performance in No Country For Old Men. So far, I have only heard buzz regarding the men in this film but I would love to see her start getting some recognition. I have only seen the previews and living in the midwest means it won't open here for weeks so I cannot back up my musings with any real support. I have been a fan of MacDonald's for years and would like to see some of the powers-that-be in Hollywood start to give her some better roles. Since this is a Coen Brothers movie, I guess she'll be nominated for an Oscar sometime in the future (since all Coen actors are at some point [except for John Goodman]).
So far, I have only heard buzz regarding the men in this film.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately it seems that in all of these films, the supporting actresses are overshadowed by the men.
Cate Blanchett is everyone's predicted frontrunner, but I think Marisa Tomei has a great shot in this category. Not so sure about Julia Roberts. From the trailer I wasn't impressed with her, but we know better than to judge a performance by a trailer.
Interesting to read so many perceptive opinions about this year's unpredictable Best Supporting Actress race!
ReplyDeleteI wrote this article understanding that this is a contest that no one is ready to accurately predict-certainly not me (at least at this time).
When we don't have answers, we have to look at alternatives. I'm glad we are all considering the possibility of Marissa Tomei for a Lumet picture; Julia Roberts for a very baity role, and Charlize Theron for a switch to B.S. Actress from lead.
I am personally rooting big time for Theron, whose reviews for "Elah," have to be read to be believed. The New Yorker is championing her performance, and that's enough for me to believe in her. She's a smart actress who downplays her looks, and despite what some say about deglam roles and their conventions, I truly believe that deglammed roles offer terrific opportunities for actors to demonstrate their dramatic range and capabilities.
I know this is controversial to say in an Oscar blog, but I'm just glad this year we have a GOOD actress (Blanchett) in the lead for a trophy (and not Jennifer Hudson). Keep sharing your thoughts on this race here in this forum.
Thanks,
Lee, Critic, Oscar Igloo
Also, do tell me how my reviews can improve? What you enjoyed & didn't enjoy, about this article.
ReplyDeleteI know this is controversial to say in an Oscar blog, but I'm just glad this year we have a GOOD actress (Blanchett) in the lead for a trophy (and not Jennifer Hudson).
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's controversial, but I don't think there are many here who would argue with that. :)
And I agree with you about Theron. She's an absolutely terrific actress and she has a good shot because she stands out more than many of the other supporting actresses in their respective films. Tilda Swinton turned in a good performance, but she was overshadowed by Clooney and Wilkinson. One person suggested Kelly MacDonald - again, all the buzz is about the men in the film, overshadowing her. That seems to be the pattern.
Right now this category is weak and, as one person said on their blog, boring. But I enjoyed your article. It was well-written and insightful.
Thank you Alison. Again, I think you ought to apply to be a critic for the site. Very insightful.
ReplyDeleteAlso, Agree on McDonald. I don't see that happening. All the buzz is for the men.
Thanks, Lee. Although, I don't really see myself as a movie critic. I'm really just someone with an opinion who happens to write fairly decently. :)
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of Kelly MacDonald, I just found this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.awardsdaily.com/2007/11/la-times-kenneth-turan-more-ac.html
Some praise for her finally.
Thank you, Alison Flynn, for finding that nod of recognition for my pick, Kelly MacDonald. I threw her name out there as an anonymous user because I didn't want to be ridiculed for throwing out such a random name as a first time poster (though long-time reader) on this site. It was actually my second post because I praised Adam's Junebug performance while I bemoaned Bello's two snubs earlier on this same thread.
ReplyDeleteAs I had said, I hadn't heard anything regarding Kelly MacDonald for this movie and am glad that someone in LA has actually taken notice. All it takes is one person suggesting something for it to snowball into a nice nod/nomination for her. It is a Coen Brothers film and if she has a perfect Texas accent the Academy might take notice of this Scot in such a weak/boring year for supporting actresses.
I appreciated this article on this weak race because the supporting actress race used to be my favorite category at the Oscars -- it was where the veterans and the ingenues battled it out. Lately it hasn't been this way.
I would like to see Tomei nominated again although I must wonder why every time she is buzzed about in Awards Season we have to say she is making a surprising "comeback". Am I the only filmgoer who thinks she has been fine in other roles such as Alfie? Other stars are absent from buzz for longer periods of time and they aren't heralded as comeback stories? Why is Tomei's Oscar win more lamented in the world than Mira Sorvino's? I just do not get it.
Speaking of Sorvino -- she is in Reservation Road with Jennifer Connelly. Both are previous Oscar winners but is there any buzz for either of them? Or will RR become this year's lightly respected Ruffalo film like We Don't Live Here Anymore -- a film which had a great supporting turn from Laura Dern although it was shown no real love by anyone at awards season. I don't know -- just two more names to throw out there: Sorvino and Connelly.
Lastly, I will throw out my two-cents worth on the three Bionys. It'll be weeks before I get to see the film; but after reading it I'd say the performance I am most eager for is Ronan's and I am almost certain she'll be the Briony with the nomination. Perhaps she'll beat the frontrunners a la Paquin. I can see it happening. As for the other two Brionys, I haven't heard anything great about Garai in Atonement. I think she is a good actress and will get a nomination ... someday; but not this year. Vanessa Redgrave's Briony cannot be much more than a cameo and so if she gets a nomination it'll be out of respect for her being Vanessa Redgrave. If this Briony brings on the tears at the end of this weeper she could very easily score a second Briony nomination. If William Hurt got a nomination a couple of years ago for a very-limited-yet-meaty role, Redgrave could do it for a juicy role. Since we were all ready and wanting to give her a nod for Evening (until we saw it), Redgrave can still be this year's veteran actress commonly found in this category. I think the role of Briony is compelling enough for two nominations.
I'll close with: Kelly MacDonald, anyone?
THOMAS:I agree with you on this:
ReplyDelete"I appreciated this article on this weak race because the supporting actress race used to be my favorite category at the Oscars -- it was where the veterans and the ingenues battled it out. Lately it hasn't been this way.:
WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO THIS CATEGORY LATELY?
I just saw Sean Penn's fantastic film "Into the Wild" and I'm wondering why Catherine Keener isn't getting considered at all for her performance. She is great in this movie.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting to put Tomei and Roberts ahead of Swinton & Ryan.
ReplyDeleteWhat about Kidman in The Golden Compass ? They need a showy performance in the supporting category, and Margot at the wedding, for which she is receiving great reviews, will increase her chance
ReplyDelete