Ummmmm, huh?Sorry, but I just don't see this film breaking into the Best Pic race, let alone winning
A ton of early buzz. I wanted to ask if it is even going to get nominated, but so far, it seems like it has a shot. I reckoned it's really competing against the Wrestler, Rachel Getting Married, The Visitor, or Happy Go Lucky. One of the five will get nominated if past regularities are applicable this year. If it does get nominated, it probably will not win. But, it definitely has a chance to receive a nod if it's as good as critics say it is. Why don't you see it breaking into the Best pic race? Interesting statement...
I think this'll definitely be the dark horse, indie movie contender this year. Whether it'll get in or not largely depends on the success of other bigger movies (Revolutionary Road, Benjamin Button, Milk, Australia, Doubt, etc.) I kind of agree with Keith's statement, though more about Wrestler and Rachel Getting Married than Visitor or Happy-Go-Lucky (I see them getting into acting but little else, maybe screenplay). But yeah, if buzz and early word are to be believed, I'd say it definitely has a shot. Fingers crossed it doesn't become this year's Kite Runner.
It would really need to be a big hit like Juno was IMO. With previous contenders dropping like flies, I'm honestly going call The Dark Knight and Milk the only two locks. Even Benjamin Button may fall by the wayside if Fincher doesn't do some trimming in the editing room. Not many people outside indie junkies and awards trackers know about Slumdog Millionare, and I just don't think it will have the proper momentum or whatnot to really stand out amongst other bigger pictures like The Dark Knight. I think at this point we need to call The Dark Knight a secure lock. Insanely good reviews, brilliance, public consensus, and over $500 million domestically are things that won't and cannot be ignored. I think Slumdog Millionare could end up being this year's The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. Looks like it's very well directed and aesthetically astounding. Only time will tell. We basically just have to see how the other contenders fare. Honestly, I just see The Wrestler having a better shot at indie dark horse.
Neo: I definitely agree about momentum, but I don't think it has to be as successful as Juno to get a nod. This year is looking relatively weak, plus if the Dark Knight gets a nod, the box office success of other films will mean even less. In terms of critical success, it might match Juno, but the momentum needs to start building. Ebert already gave it a ringing endorsement. The Kite Runner had a ton of early buzz, and critics just weren't feeling it. Slumdog is getting fantastic reviews so far, so I think it might have a different fate than Kite. It definitely has more of a chance of being like the Diving Bell (which was snubbed IMO), but the key difference I believe is that this year will not be as strong as last year. So, it opens the door a bit more for Slumdog. As I mentioned a few days ago, the Dark Knight appears to be a lock. Once they re-release it, no one will turn their backs to it. I watched again recently, and it is a really good film. I thought the initial backlash (b/c of fanboys) hurt it a bit, but hopefully critics will look pass those over excited fans, and judge the movie on its own merit. It deserves praise.
Good point about the Kite Runner comparison. I enjoyed Kite Runner, but I can see why it wasn't embraced. Slumdog is getting critical praise, but it needs momentum and buzz beyond people who actually pay attention to this stuff. All the critics in the world can't get a film seen unles they generate WoM buzz. It needs to be released very quickly in order to really have its best shot. Yeah, the re-release has pretty well solidified The Dark Knight. Honestly, the trailers of almost every potential contender this year have been misleading. I was just starting to get excited about this year's films, until I saw the first round of them. Honestly, I miss 2007, and I have yet to be really impressed by anything beyond the awesome summer movies we got. Not only was The Dark Knight the year's best film, but we also got Iron Man, Wall-E, Hellboy II (which I loved), The Incredible Hulk (a vast improvement over the first film, though not for everyone), etc. Besides The Dark Knight and Wall-E, nothing has really stepped up to bat. Milk and Benjamin Button look like the only two films that won't disappoint me at this point. And even test screeening of Benjamin Button have said that while very very good, it needs some fat trimmed, and unless that happens, it will fall just short of great. It's a sad day indeed when even the small art house oscar films cant get nominated. It kind of shows you just how much the strike really affected everything. Here's hoping things improve. But if they don't, we'll always have The Dark Knight, Wall-E, Slumdog, and The Wrestler at the very least. Hell, The Dark Knight is more than enough to tide me over until The Road comes out.