Our final predictions are ready, our forum members are already debating each others' theories and I bet you, just like our writing team and everybody who follows the Oscars as well, are having a hard time separating the personal vs the realistic winner choice.Some categories have strong favorites like Best Actor and Best Director but what about Best Supporting Actress? That's some drama...
Let us know your Big 8's Will/Should Win picks! (but please, make your case)
Posts
Best Picture
ReplyDelete(Will): No Country for Old Men
(Should): No Country for Old Men
Argument: All of the relevant evidence points toward a NCfOM win. It has dominated the Guilds and critic awards. It has been heralded as one of the best movies of the year, and it has produced one of the most memorable characters of all time in Chigurgh. Accolades aside, the philosophical implication of the film is, perhaps, one of the more subtle intellectual points that is applicable to wide variety of subjects. Conventional wisdom says go with NCfOM. But, I also think it is one of the best movies I've seen in years. It just stuck with me.
Alt: There Will Be Blood
Best Picture
ReplyDelete(WILL) - "No Country for Old Men"
It has won everything.
(SHOULD) - "Michael Clayton"
I believe it to be the one that reaches its purpose the most, and in a dry, realistic form.
Best Actor
(WILL) - Daniel Day-Lewis.
I don´t think he was that great. It seems to me like he tried too heard and was a bit overacted. Nevertheless, this is a helen-mirren-type favourite.
(SHOULD) - Viggo Mortensen.
He was original, captivating and mysterious. A real scene stealer.
Best Actress
(WILL) - Julie Christie.
She´s a legend, an icon, it´s been 42 years since she won, she´s well respected and maintained a serious career. She also has the simple advantage of speaking ENGLISH.
(SHOULD) - obviously, Marion Cotillard.
There are no comments to describe one of the most magical, beautiful and haunting performances in film history. Too bad that when it comes to foreigners, acting in a biopic is referred to as 'mimicry'.
Best Supporting Actor
(WILL) - Javier Bardem.
The story revolves around him and even though he doesn´t deliver that much range in the role, it´s enough to make people think he´s chilling and scary.
(SHOULD) - well, I have to admit, Javier Bardem.
At least his role is the most challenging.
Best Supporting Actress
(WILL) - Cate Blanchett.
Actually, I don´t think she will win. But there´s no one else I believe will win, either! Or better, she´s the closest to being a frontrunner, but only technically speaking...
(SHOULD) - Tilda Swinton.
I would vote for her. Her character is so subtle, disturbed, multi-layered. She just adds such depth to Karen Crowder, it´s almost like you know her.
Best Director
(WILL) - Coens.
They won basically everything. They´re 'ok'.
(SHOULD) - Julian Schnabel.
Daring and original. But Schnabel and Cotillard winners on the same night? Don´t think so... Too bad.
Best Picture
ReplyDeleteWill Win: NCfOM
Should Win: Atonement
Not an easy choice, and I can understand arguments for each nominee winning except Juno (nice little indie comedy, but not even the best one of those in 2007). Atonement is perhaps closest to being a flawless movie, it's one of the great novel adaptations of all time, and a powerful cinematic accomplishment on all fronts. Unfortunately it never quite gained the steam over here it would have needed to win this (nominations for Wright and McAvoy would have helped immensely). I'd put it behind Juno and Michael Clayton in terms of likelihood.
Actor
Will Win: DDL
Should Win: DDL
Certainly unusual and insanely over-the-top, but I couldn't argue for any of the other four. DDL gave one of the most memorable film performances in a very long time and has to be recognized.
Actress
Will Win: Julie Christie
Should Win: Laura Linney
Linney gave one of my personal favorite performances of 2007, so I was overjoyed to find she'd been nominated. It may not be a typically baity kind of role compared to Christie and Cotillard, yet her character made me feel so much with so little. It'd be a good balance to DDL winning -- award greatness through subtlety, too. Still, if Cotillard beats Christie I'll be happy.
Supporting Actor
Will Win: Javier Bardem
Should Win: Tom Wilkinson
Say what you want about Wilkinson's performance borrowing heavily from Network, but I found it to be an original and stirring center to Michael Clayton. Wilkinson is such a brilliant actor, he managed to give his character a complexity and believability that went much deeper than his dialogue.
Supporting Actress
Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Tilda Swinton
I have a hard time seeing Blanchett losing this one. It's a weaker category this year and mostly not the people I'd have nominated at all (Catherine Keener, anyone? And am I really the only one who was floored by Romola Garai?) but anyway Tilda was the best of the bunch and made a great villain.
Director
Will Win: Los hermanos Coen
Should Win: Julian Schnabel
Diving Bell was my favorite movie of the year and Schnabel's work is just jaw-dropping. At the same time, I'm excited to see the Coens finally win one.
Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: NCfOM
Should Win: Atonement
As I said before, if we're talking about adaptations, it has to be Atonement. I just sat there through the whole movie amazed that Ian McEwan's highly literary work had been so successfully and precisely translated to the screen.
Original Screenplay
Will Win: Juno
Should Win: Michael Clayton
I won't be too upset about Diablo winning here, though I have my doubts about this screenplay's merits standing the test of time. Juno is going to be one of those award-winning movies future generations look at and say, "This is what passed for funny in 2007? Hamburger phones?" Michael Clayton's screenplay, on the other hand, is one you ought to see studied in screenwriting classes.
Picture: NCFOM
ReplyDeleteActor: DDL
Actress: Christie -- She rocked this role as did Cotillard w/ her portrayal of Piaf. Edge to Christie.
Supp Actor: Bardem
Supp Actress: Ryan
Director: Schnabel
Best Picture
ReplyDeleteWill Win: No Country for Old Men
It has won all of the major guilds and it just seems impossible to beat.
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Actor
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Again, has won every major award thus far and an upset again(Gangs of New York) doesn't seem likely. The best performance of the century so far.
Best Actress
Will Win: Marion Cotillard
I just don't see Christie winning here even though she's won many preliminary awards. Cotillard was great and the BAFTA win seems to help.
Should Win: Ellen Page
A fresh and heartfelt performance.
Best Supporting Actor
Will and Should Win: Javier Bardem
No argument. Period.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Tilda Swinton
This will be the upset of the night. BAFTA helped.
Should Win: Cate Blanchett
The strongest out of the 5.
Best Director
Will Win: The Coen Bros.
The DGA says it all and they are somewhat due.
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Original and brilliant.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Juno
The new celebrity factor of Diablo Cody.
Should Win: Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win and Should Win:
No Country for Old Men
The Coen Bros. factor and it's just an entertaining and intelligent script.
Overall, I believe that it was just an amazing year and if there are upsets, so be it!
Best Picture
ReplyDelete(Will) Toss-up (except Michael Clayton)
(Should) There Will be Blood
Argument: The fact is that I think NfCoM does not have as great of a chance at winning as many may think. It is very artsy and slow which may turn out to be a movie the average person does not find enjoying. However, the argument to that is, so is There Will be Blood and Atonement. Honestly, I think that in the end , as much as I don't want it to happen, Juno will come up with the win. Only because it appeals to such a wide audience. However, I would rank the pictures in this order from favortie to least favorite (TWBB, NfCoM, Michael Clayton, Atonement, Juno)
Best Actor
(Will) Daniel-Day Lewis
(Should) Johnny Depp
Daniel has been getting so much hype over his performence and it is understandably so. He was excellent! But, the fact is that I was slightly more convinced by Johnny Depp's performence in Sweeney Todd. I think that when he puts himself into a role, he always perfects it, regardless if the movie is good or not. However, I found this movie to be one of the best of the year and I felt like I wasn't even watching Johnny anymore, I was actually watching a psychotic barber!
Best Actress
(Will) Julie Christie
(Should) Ellen Page
Ellen Page is what carried Juno. If it wasn't for her, the movie would have sucked bad! Enough said.
Best Supporting Actor
(Will) Javier Bardem
(Should) Javier Bardem
His performence is the scariest since Anthony Hopkins as Hannibal Lector. He truly makes this character his own.
Best Supporting Actress
(Will) Cate Blanchett
(Should) Amy Ryan!!!!!
Amy Ryan's performence in Gone Baby Gone gave me chills and by the end, had me rooting for her, regardless if she was a horrible mother or not. But, she's going to be overlooked because then movie didn't get much recognition (but is the most thought-provoking and moving movie of the year).
Best Picture
ReplyDeleteWill Win/Should Win: No Country for Old Men
All arguments have been made. I don't need to say another word about it. Although I did love There Will Be Blood equally, No Country owns this.
Director
Will Win/Should Win: Coen Brothers
See above.
Best Actor
Will Win/Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
He was in almost every single frame of this movie and carried it, providing complexity and nuance to a single-minded and relentless character. Always the chameleon, he disappeared into Daniel Plainview and made a dislikable person charismatic and mesmerizing. From the quiet, subtle scenes to the loud, ferocious ones he nailed every aspect of the role and showed true devotion to his craft.
I would be equally happy if Viggo Mortensen won. Another performance in which the actor absolutely transformed himself into the character and showed true dedication to his craft. And Tommy Lee Jones was powerful and touching in a film that was unfortunately a disappointment. I'm just happy that he got the nomination and acknowledgement for the wonderful work he did in two films.
Best Actress
Will Win/Should Win: Marion Cotillard
I don't see Julie Christie as a lock, the way Bardem is, though she has been the clear frontrunner. This category isn't quite as clear-cut in my opinion. While I think Christie was spectacular in her own way, as was Page, Marion Cotillard blew me away with her amazing range and ability to transform into the woman who was Edith Piaf. I don't have enough words to describe how fabulous I thought she was. I think she could win, despite the foreign language issue, and I'm predicting her to do so.
Supporting Actor
Will Win/Should Win: Javier Bardem, friendo
There is no argument
Supporting Actress
Will Win: Amy Ryan
Should Win: Toss-up b/w Amy Ryan and Saoirse Ronan
This is one of the toughest categories to try to predict this year, and the toughest acting category. It really could go 5 ways.
I'm going with Amy Ryan because she was the early frontrunner, after winning the NBR and several critic awards. Hers is a real breakthrough performance, and the Academy often likes to reward those in the supporting categories (particularly actress). Finally, she's American - many have quoted the Marisa Tomei rule, that at least one American must win in an acting category. We'll see if they break that rule this year.
Ronan was equally excellent, but I don't see another Paquin happening this year. If I'm wrong I'll be pleasantly surprised.
I don't get some comments, the few that there are, that say Day-Lewis' acting is over the top or he tried too hard. Tried too hard ?! Didn't you catch the phenomanal acting scenes in subtle form? I won't name every scene but there are many scenes where Plainview's wheels are spinning, non-verbally, where you can understand exactly what he was thinking or feeling by just a small glance or expression. Example: On the beach discovering Henry is a fraud and at the table where the man is telling him how he should raise his son. Those looks he makes of annoyance are priceless. Don't think he was that great ?! He OWNED the screen. It probably didn't hurt that he is in nearly every scene as well. And in the finale, what do people expect the guy to act like ? He's a nut job, alcoholic by that point, and he dispises Eli, that he's going to toy with him a bit till he does something he has wanted to do for a long time. Great acting. But it's the non-verbal scenes he shines in that I thought was the most impressive in the performance.
ReplyDeletePic
No Country For Old Men
Actor
DDL
Actress
Marion Cotillard
Sup Actor
Javiar Bardem
Sup Actress
Amy Ryan
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson
O-screenplay
Juno
A-Screenplay
No Country For Old Men
Cinematography
Roger Deakins for one of his two nods.
Actually I agree with the other comment above. I think that DDL did overact it. It did look a bit over the top to me.
ReplyDeleteMarion Cotillard should win Best Actress. Christie was very deep and affecting as Fiona but her role wasnt as demanding and she relied too much on her natural appeal. Cotillard transformed herself and showed a range of emotions that trespassed the language barrier. She deserves to win.
ReplyDeleteMARION COTILLARD MUST WON IN EVERYTHING! THE BEST PERFORMANCE OF THE YEAR!
ReplyDeletePicture
ReplyDeleteWill Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: There Will Be Blood
NCFOM has won every important award (unless you count the GG...I don't), is considered the best movie of the year by just about everyone. It'll win in a cakewalk. However, while NCFOM was a great film, I thought TWBB was the best film of the year by a mile--truly an epic picture.
Director
Will Win: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Every shot in TWBB was meaningful and unconventional. However, that won't stop the Coens from winning this category. Not a bad choice, granted.
Actor
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Obviously; he's won just about every precursor, and it's pretty much agreed that he gave the best performance of the year.
Actress
Will Win: Ellen Page
Should Win: I don't know...I alternate between Page and Cotillard
Page is my wack-job prediction of the year. I did it mostly because of some trivia I found involving Roger Ebert's Best Actress track record, and that was enough to convince me. Really, this prediction is just to keep me guessing throughout the night. Christie will probably win, but I can see Page getting it.
Supp. Actor
Will Win: Javier Bardem
Should Win: Tom Wilkinson
Bardem gave one of the creepiest villain performances ever, and has won EVERY precursor. He'll get this in a flash. His performance was great, but I would pick Tom Wilkinson's multi-dimensional performance in Michael Clayton over Bardem's.
Supp. Actress
Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Amy Ryan
I've said this a million times, but: the most confusing race of the year tends to go with the frontrunner. Therefore, Blanchett will win for her self-indulgent, unconvincing performance in I'm Not There (I love her, she was just directed badly) over Amy Ryan's emotional and complex turn in Gone Baby Gone. Don't count out an upset by any of these ladies, though.
O. Screenplay
Will Win: Juno
Should Win: Juno
Michael Clayton could win just because Juno is being falsely criticized for being "overwritten", but I doubt it. Juno is a hilarious, heartbreaking, touching film that is perfect for this category. It's also a seminar in screenwriting. Cody's acceptance speech will be enjoyable.
A. Screenplay
Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country had a fantastic screenplay, but don't count out an upset by There Will Be Blood. Paul Thomas Anderson has a lot of respect in the writer's community, and could be considered overdue for a win here. I would love to see The Diving Bell and the Butterfly upset, but it just can't win when it's up against NCFOM and TWBB.
How can anyone say Day-Lewis over acts? The final scene is SUPPOSED to be over the top. It was WRITTEN that way by PTA. The guy is whacked out of his skull by the end, not to mention a hardened alcoholic and his hatred for Eli. I'd expect someone in that frame of mind to act weird like that. Thought it was acted brilliant. And there were many quiet, solitary scenes that are acted well, when he isn't even delivering any lines. Nuances, looks and expressions, that telegraph exactly what he's thinking, when the wheels are constantly spinning in his head. If you didn't see those subtle scenes and it didn't grab your attention and you just noticed the intense ones, than you weren't paying attention enough or you don't know all-around good acting. The time he is sitting on the train by himself, his paranoia running away with him, the time on the coastline with Henry, him alone in his mansion at his desk, all great subtle performances with no dialogue, but still well acted and emoted. Best performance of the year easy.
ReplyDeletePicture - Atonement
ReplyDeleteActor - Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress - Ellen Page
Supporting Actor - Javier Bardem
Supporting Actress - Amy Ryan
Adapted Screenplay - No Country for Old Men
Original Screenplay - Juno
Director - Coen Bros.
Animated - Ratatouille
Song - That's How You Know
Score - Atonement
Cinematography - Atonement
Editing - No Country for Old Men
Art Direction - Sweeney Todd
Costumes - Sweeney Todd
Makeup - La Vie en Rose
Visual Effects - Transformers
Sound Mixing - Transformers
Sound Editing - Transformers
Documentary - No End in Sight
Foreign FIlm - Austria
The world would be too perfect if Marion Cotillard actually won. She totally deserves it, and let´s remember that some of the greatest performances in film history weren´t even given Oscars. Marion is already one of the most remarkable performances EVER, and that goes way beyond anything that Julie Christie could win. Still, it would be nice to see Marion getting this recognition, even though, as mentioned earlier, she does have the disadvantage of speaking french...
ReplyDeleteCan anyone imagine Marion losing this Oscar if she was american? She makes Jamie Foxx´s and Reese Witherspoon´s performance look like a joke! Too bad there´s so much politics going on in hollywood. Anyway, GO MARION, you gave one of the most beautiful and incredible performances in film history.
let´s remember that some of the greatest performances in film history weren´t even given Oscars
ReplyDeleteAnd the greatest performers. The fabulous, sizzle-on-screen Barbara Stanwyck was nominated 4 times, but never won an Oscar. Somewhere on the web there's a site that lists all of the legendary screen actors, directors, writers, etc. that never won Oscars. If I can find it I'll post the link here. More people haven't won Oscars than have.
Also, I forgot to put in my screenplay predictions in my comment above. Here they are:
Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Should Win: every one of these deserves to win; they were each spectacular adaptations in their own way
"The Diving Bell" was my #1 film of the year. It was nominated in every category that goes into the making of a best picture, yet was snubbed for Best Picture. I'm predicting that they'll award it in one category, and that this will be it.
But every one of these is worthy. The only one I would argue with is "There Will Be Blood", not because it isn't a fantastic screenplay. It is. But PTA only worked from the first part of the book, then veered off on his own riff. This is really almost an original screenplay. But that's just a technicality.
Original Screenplay
Will Win: Juno
Should Win: The Savages or Ratatouille
Juno has all the heat. If anything else wins, it will be a huge upset. But Tamara Jenkins' "The Savages" is a stunning piece of screenwriting. This film successfully blends the dark tone of its somber subject matter with much-needed humor. The balance is maintained perfectly throughout, thanks to Jenkins' screenplay, as well as the terrific actors.
I would also love to see Brad Bird get this. "Ratatouille" was a fabulous film all around, thanks in no small part to its flawless screenplay. What a breakthrough that would be for the Academy to award an animated film in this category. But the fact that it was nominated is a step in the right direction.
Again, however, I cannot complain about any of the nominees in this category.
BEST PICTURE
ReplyDeleteWill Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
It was a great looking film that was well acted and directed for every single frame.
BEST ACTOR
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
It's the performance that is going to be remembered for a very long time.
BEST ACTRESS
Will Win: Julie Christie
Should Win: Ellen Page
Christie still has a lot of support, even if she's fighting with Cotillard, but loved Page in a film I didn't much care for.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: Javier Bardem
Should Win: Casey Affleck
Bardem's won every award under the sun for a great performance, but I would side more with Affleck's more complex and emotionally driven character.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Amy Ryan
No clear frontrunner here, but I'm going with Blanchett because of the memorable role. Ryan, on the other hand, I loved because she took a character that is overused and well known and made us care about her.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
The Coens have swept, so they'll win, and I'm happy they will. However, PTA was better to me in a photo-finish race.
Best Picture:
ReplyDeleteWill Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Atonement
Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win Ruby Dee
Should Win Amy Ryan
Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win Javier Bardem
Should Win Hal Holbrook
Best Actor
Will Win Daniel Day Lewis
Should Win Daniel Day Lewis
Best Actress
Will Win Marion Cotilliard
Should Win Julie Cristie
Best Director
Will Win The Cohen Brothers
Should Win Julian Schanbel
Best Picture:
ReplyDeleteWill Win: No Country For Old Men
Should Win: There Will Be Blood
Dark Horse: Juno
Shouldn’t Be Here: Michael Clayton
Got Robbed: 3:10 to Yuma
Best Director:
Will Win: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen; No Country For Old Men
Should Win: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen; No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Paul Thomas Anderson; There Will Be Blood
Shouldn’t Be Here: Tony Gilroy; Michael Clayton
Got Robbed: Tim Burton; Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Best Actor:
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis; There Will Be Blood
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis; There Will Be Blood
Dark Horse: Tommy Lee Jones; In The Valley Of Elah
Shouldn’t Be Here: Viggo Mortenson; Eastern Promises
Got Robbed: Ryan Gosling; Lars And The Real Girl
Best Actress:
Will Win: Julie Christie; Away From Her
Should Win: Ellen Page; Juno
Dark Horse: Marion Cotillard; La Môme
Shouldn’t Be Here: Cate Blanchett; Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Got Robbed: Keira Knightley; Atonement
Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Javier Bardem; No Country For Old Men
Should Win: Javier Bardem; No Country For Old Men
Dark Horse: Tom Wilkinson; Michael Clayton
Shouldn’t Be Here: Hal Holbrook; Into The Wild
Got Robbed: Paul Dano; There Will Be Blood
Best Supporting Actress:
Will Win: Cate Blanchett; I’m Not There
Should Win: Tilda Swinton; Michael Clayton
Dark Horse: Ruby Dee; American Gangster
Shouldn’t Be Here: Ruby Dee; American Gangster
Got Robbed: Jennifer Garner; Juno
Best Original Screenplay:
Will Win: Diablo Cody; Juno
Should Win: Diablo Cody; Juno
Dark Horse: Nancy Oliver; Lars And The Real Girl
Shouldn’t Be Here: Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco; Ratatouille
Got Robbed: Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg; Superbad
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will Win: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen; No Country For Old Men
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson; There Will Be Blood
Dark Horse: Christopher Hampton; Atonement
Shouldn’t Be Here: Sarah Polley; Away From Her
Got Robbed: Aaron Sorkin; Charlie Wilson’s War
Best Picture
ReplyDeleteWill Win: No Country For Old Men
Should Win: Juno
I think NCfOM will win because is the typical oscar movie: violence, violence and violence. I think Atonement could take the Oscar to home but Juno is the best movie of the year and I think the Academy should award it because is fresh, cute and human.
Best Actor
Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis
Should Win: Johnny Depp
Daniel Day Lewis is the best positioned to win but I must confess that his performance didn't like me so much. I think Johnny Depp should win because his role in Swenney Todd was amazing. The academy doesn't often awards an actor who sings in his movie and I think it should do it.
Best Actress
Will Win: Marion Cotillard
Should Win: Marion Cotillard
Marion Cotillard and her performance in La Vie en Rose must win and I don't need to tell anything else about it.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Javier Bardem
Should Win: Javier Bardem
Javier Bardem give us a brilliant performance in Coen Brother's No Country For Old Man and he's going to win because the academy loves this kind of roles.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Cate Blanchett
Should Win: Amy Ryan
Cate Blanchett and his Bob Dylan's role in I'm Not There are gorgeous but not even more than Amy Ryan's role in Gone Baby Gone. We dind't now Amy so much but now I think she could win the oscar because she deserves it.
Best Archievement in Direction:
Will Win: Coen Brothers
Should Win: Coen Brothers
They are brilliant and I think this year they are going to win this award. If they don't, I hope Julian Schnabel do it.