Is Best Actor a showdown between Johnny Depp and Daniel Day Lewis? That seems to be what everybody, including our forum users, seems to believe right now.Luckily, Tom Houseman really thinks Best Actor is Wilder than we think and he makes some interesting points on his latest piece:
"And now for a little history lesson to prove my most important point of the night which is that any frontrunner can fall and two-horse races are very susceptible to underdogs. In 2002, everyone was saying that there were only two people who could win the Best Actor Oscar: Jack Nicholson for About Schmidt and, you guessed it, Daniel Day-Lewis as the villain in Gangs of New York. Yet little Adrien Brody came out of nowhere to take it. Brody gave a critically raved performance in a highly acclaimed Best Picture nominee, The Pianist, and upset the two big dogs to win the Oscar"
Read the full article here.
Who is your Best Actor frontrunner?
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This is a very well written article, and the points you make are certainly defendable, however, it's borderline offensive that critics continue to ignore Tommy Lee Jones as the frontrunner, in favor of films that have yet to come out. To date, TLJ, a former winner, has recieved Sean Penn-esque ala Mystic River reviews for "In the Valley of Elah." He is the frontrunner.
ReplyDeleteI'll go on record with Steve Carell in "Dan in Real Life" as a frontrunner for Best Actor in a Leading Role. It was a subtle, shaded, moving performance. Did anyone else both laugh and cry?
ReplyDeleteExcellent article, Tom! I feel so honored that I inspired a debate and an article!
ReplyDeleteI really was wondering how people could possibly have it down so pat this early (and some predictors are absolutely positive that Depp is the frontrunner), which is why I put the question out there to see what people thought. You've made some excellent points. Hirsch could definitely surprise people.
And, as anonymous (3:59pm) mentions, Tommy Lee Jones. Everyone seems to have forgotten about him, but his performance in Valley of Elah was absolutely superb (I think he is more apt to be nominated for this film than for No Country). I hope they don't ignore him because the pic didn't do as well as they'd hoped.
I think the Academy very much WANTS to reward Depp. He has become truly beloved over the years. And I think we're looking at a DDL has an Oscar, Depp doesn't and he'll steal it. Blood looks to be regarded as this year's masterpiece yet a very difficult Oscar sell. Sweeney will not fare well anywhere else.
ReplyDeleteThis year will be all over the place I think. No sweeps, good thing.
I don't think Emile Hirsch is the actor that Adrien Brody is. Furthermore, I don't believe his performance in "Into the Wild" was extraordinary--he was competent--but that's about it. So, if there is an upset between Depp and Day Lewis, I don't think Hirsch is the guy. I think it would need to be someone who is just more than competent.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I don't even think it is a horse race between Depp and Day Lewis. Day Lewis is winning. With the film being compared to Citizen Kane and everyone but me thinking he was robbed for Gangs of New York, I don't think the Academy will deny him another Oscar. Depp, on the other hand, has to get nominated, which I'm beginning to think won't happen. Critics don't like Johnny Depp, therefore they'll crucify him in the role and that will be enough of an excuse for Academy members to look to other actors to nominate.
Well, I think the Citizen Kane comparison was a little bit of an exaggeration probably.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand the logic behind "DDL has an Oscar, Depp doesn't and he'll steal it". Since when does the Academy deny someone who turns in an extraordinary performance an Oscar because they already have one? There are 2-time Oscar winners out there.
Danny Day is definitely the front-runner in the best actor race. No other actor can enter a character as well as DDL, he is such an intense actor. Thus far, the trailers indicate that the main character portrayed by DDL is extremely complex setting up Danny Day to be in the lead at this point in time. However, I thought Denzel was incredible in Gangster, but the performance is almost a more glorified version of the role he portrayed in Training Day. I also think Del Toro is a major sleeper in this category.
ReplyDeleteFrom the EARLY reviews DDL is the frontrunner. If it holds up I don't think Depp have a praying chance in winning. Having seen Into the Wild and Atonement I have to say alot of people are over-estimating Emile Hirsch and James McAvoy in their performance (but we know that there're other factors as well). John Cusack, Jack (can never count him out) and even Ryan Gosling can all suprise imho.
ReplyDeleteAnd what about Benicio del Torro for Things We Lost in the Fire? Even among critics who disliked the movie, most of them praised his performance. And no one has seen Charlie Wilson's War yet. I have a bad feeling about the movie, but who knows? Tom Hanks could end up as a frontrunner again, too.
ReplyDeleteLots of powerhouse actors in movies this year.
My Dark Horse picks:
ReplyDeleteJohn Cusack - good actors from the brat pack era actors are getting their dues lately - Sean Penn, Tim Robins and even Matt Dillon. Have a good shot at a nomination and possibly a win.
Emile Hirsch - The academy loves physical transformation. Into the Wild is having an aggressive campaign. Hirsh can really benefit from it.
Ryan Gosling - affecting and memorable character. I am Sam and Harvey anyone? Okay maybe not a win but alot of people seems to be ignoring his chances.
Johnny Depp - The academy doesn't really like Burton's film, and until recently they don't really care for Johnny. It would be a tough one to pull off, and I have no idea how some people can see himas a front runner at this point of the race.
James McAvoy - Even Ralph Fiennes couldn't do it, don't see how he can pull one off here.
My frontrunner is Lewis as well: Depp, Hirsch, Jones and Hoffman (Savages) would be my other nominees.
ReplyDeleteI do not see how Macavoy doesn't make it in this year. I really don't. Furthermore, TOmmy Lee Jones will be nominated as well. I think DDL and Depp aren't even locks for noms at this point.
ReplyDeleteThis is a race between two big names: Day-Lewis & Depp
ReplyDeleteDepp:
-He's a great actor, but he's a box-office star
-He's overdue and love for the public, critics and co-stars
-He's american
-the best fil partnership: Burton-Depp
Day-Lewis:
-He's one of the ebst actor of his generation
-He worked with msot recognized directors
-He's british?
-He's semi-retired
Conclusion: I think Depp has more changes of win that Oscar.
Only james McAvoy could be competition (For the film of course)
'Only james McAvoy could be competition'
ReplyDeleteMore than James McAvoy, as Tom pointed out in his article. Hirsch could be a dark horse. Tommy Lee Jones gave a superb performance and AMPAS may still take notice even though the film didn't do well.
DDL and Depp appear to everyone to be the frontrunners now. But anything could happen by the time January arrives.
I have been on the igloo forums and have voiced my opinion on the DDL performance in There Will Be Blood.I saw it a FF in September. I don't know how the actual movie will be recieved, but there is no denying how good Day-Lewis is in it. It's a fiery, palpable portrayal of a man losing his soul. The question you must ask yourself after seeing TWBB, are will the other buzzed performances command your sight and attention the way DDL portrays Plainview? It's as if his game plan was to dare the audience in looking away even for a second. The performance is so large at times you feel as if he will come through the screen. Totally no bull. Will the other performances have that kind of power over you? As for the longshot? I too thought of Emile Hirsch. But Ryan Gosling could sneak in there too. He was very good in Lars. Everyone knows that DDL got robbed in 02. But the politically correct vote was the Brody character ( something Oscar is notorious for )but when it came down to the most seriously taken award, one voted among peers, the Screen Actors Guild, he won that one. So, will the Academy honor him for this one? You never know about that whackey bunch over there. Just may be another lock for a SAG win though. And I'm sure to all actors, that is the most special awrd anyway. The performance will be etched in your brain for a long time.
ReplyDeleteI think the frontrunner is DDL and I don't see how it can NOT be. Many believed he was robbed for Gangs of New York and since this is his first BIG (flashy) role since that film, you'd better believe the Academy wants to check his name on their ballot.
ReplyDeleteSince the Academy likes to retroactively nominate actors, I have to say James McAvoy is almost a definite nomination. McAvoy's co-star WON the Best Actor trophy last year for a role that was pretty much a supporting character to McAvoy's equally-impressive turn as a young, naive doctor who found himself in over his head in The Last King of Scotland. McAvoy was an "acknowledged snub" of the Academy when they invited him to present an award at the ceremony. Yes, he could be snubbed again; but since his role this year is in Atonement I don't think that'll be happening.
fuzzybob suggests the excellent Steve Carell for Dan in Real Life. I think this actor is wonderful and this was a great performance; but I don't see him getting any support from the Academy. If Jim Carrey CANNOT get nominated (for either Truman or Eternal Sunshine!!!!), Carell won't either. Alan Arkin got the nomination and win last year for a film Carell was equally as impressive in which implies that the Academy isn't overly impressed with the dramatic funny man. Also, Carell is on TV and, well ... The Academy ONLY nominated TV star Felicity Huffman for Transamerica because her performance could NOT be denied.
There have been some comments about Johnny Depp not being liked or loved by the Academy to which I have to disagree with. Once he gets another role worthy of a nomination, I believe he will be nominated. It is just a matter of time before he gets another nomination and I believe Todd should be that role. Actors make up the largest chunk of the Academy and his win at the SAG Awards a couple of years back proved that he is well-loved by his fellow actors. I think the Academy failed to nominate him for years (pre-Pirates) because they were unsure of how to tag him. After the hugely-successful Pirates came out (which was followed by the lauded and loved Finding Neverland), the Academy realized how hip they'd be to jump onto the Depp bandwagon. For years the Academy suffered because people said they were too old and/or out of touch ... embracing Depp by nominating him allowed them to shatter that image and be as young, cool and hip as the movie-going public.
I agree that Tommy Lee Jones should be getting more support than he has. Not only is he VERY strong in Elah, he has this week's No Country For Old Men which will hopefully remind Academy voters of how excellent he was in the earlier role. Let's hope voters do not eventually split their votes between his two movies which would result in a non-nomination.
I don't see the whole thing happening for Hirsch. I think the race is too strong for this under-performing (yet good) film.
I also question if this will happen for either Crowe or Washington for American Gangster. They have both been better and I think this could hurt them.
I am curious to see if PS Hoffman can sneak into this race. I think he'll definitely be in the Supporting Actor race as a supporting Charlie Wilson player, but will he get two nominations this year like actress Blanchett will likely do?
And as for Charlie Wilson himself, I think we will all have to wait and see. I mean, it IS Tom Hanks. Is he back or is the Academy love affair with him of the 90's officially over?
You've made many excellent points, Thomas.
ReplyDeleteDDL - He does seem to be the frontrunner, but I hesitate to be so certain of anything yet. It's early.
Tommy Lee Jones - I'm hoping that the votes won't split on the two movies. I would love to see him get nominated. He's great and it's been a long time; and he's never received a lead actor nom. It seems to me right now that Bardem steals the show in No Country. Hopefully the movie will merely remind voters of Elah. His buzz for Elah has gone up in the past week because of No Country.
James MacAvoy - he will almost certainly get a nomination, though a win seems unlikely right now. My opinion may change after I see the movie.
Steve Carell - no. I have to agree with you there. The movie got mixed reviews and I just don't see it.
Denzel Washington - he's on everyone's list but I have to agree. The performance wasn't explosive. Crowe stood out more for me in the film, but it still wasn't an outstanding performance.
Tom Hanks - he could sneak in, but I'm not optimistic about him or this movie. Still, we may be surprised.
Depp - he will definitely get a nomination this year, unless something truly unexpected happens. Like you, I'm not sure where people are getting the idea that he isn't liked. Critics like Ebert have always praised his performances, even in movies that were mediocre. He's actually one of the most loved actors out there right now and highly respected by his fellow actors, who make up a large body of the Academy. His films in the last few years after Neverland were not contenders so perhaps no one paid that much attention to his performances in them. They will be paying close attention to him in Sweeney Todd this year. I believe he is pretty much a lock for a nomination unless the film tanks (which it won't - early feedback is great).