I think we won't have something like "THE big movie" this year. There are just so many great ones coming out in the following months, I can barely keep track. I do think, though, that RR can be one of these great ones, even though it's gonna be difficult because people will compare it to the fantastic novel of the same name and I'm not sure if the movie is gonna pass this test. Anyways, after Wall-E and The Dark Knight brought us a hot summer, I'm looking forward to seeing many great movies this coming fall and winter!
indeed....should be an acting vehicle if nothing else
It depends on what you mean by "BIG". I think it has the potential to be an Oscar juggernaut (acting, screenplay, picture, directing). I'm fairly confident it won't make much money, but it will certainly be a contender. I think this year might be a little like last year, where there were a bunch of movies that aggregated to make one BIG (acclaimed critically) movie year. It's hard to tell if this movie is the front runner, but this year's race should be a bit more competitive than last year's. At least that's what I hope.
I agree, I LOVED No Country For Old Men, I thought it was the best film last year. That being said, I thought there was a number of great films last year and NCFOM just ran away in the awards circut, and it shocked me a little.
We've already seen the big movie of the year. It was called "The Dark Knight". Despite doubters, I honestly think that TDK can be this year's Return of the King. Maybe it wont win as many oscars, but it certainly has made so much money and garnered so much acclaim that for the academy to ignore it would show a lack of respect for modern audiences and a huge amount of arrogance. Sure, there are plenty of small, independent, oscar-y films coming out this fall. But honestly, does anyone you know that isn't a big film buff actually know about any of those films? The only fall releases most people know of are Twilight and Quantum of Solace. I know I sound like I'm going on a TDK fan-rant here, but I think to ignore it is not wise. It may actually come down to a cultural impact vote. Consider this.Titanic, Return of the King, Gladiator all won best picture, but were all big budget epics that made a ton of money at the box office. Gladiator, in fact, was a summer blockbuster. Anyone who doubts that TDK's buzz will last need only look at Gladiator, Crash, Braveheart, Forrest Gump, Unforgiven, The Fugitive, Seabiscuit, Moulin Rouge, The Sixth Sense, Saving Private Ryan, Fargo, Apollo 13, Silence of the Lambs, etc.All of those films had an August or earlier release date, and still managed to be nominated for, and, in the case of several of them, win Best Picture. As for the Titanic and Lord of the Rings example, both films had a huge cultural impact and made so much money that it was impossible for them to be ignored or go home empty handed. Quite honestly, The Road is the only thing I am really and truly looking forward to this fall. Burn after Reading and The Curios Case of Benjamin Button look very good, but I truly believe that this year's big winner may have already come. The Dark Knight is just as deserving, if not more so, than almost any "oscar" movie this fall. I don't see the buzz going away anytime soon. Considering all the rampant internet speculation about the possible third installment, as well as a projected dvd release right around Christmas, I think The Dark Knight is our big film of the year. And even if it walks away without any big awards, I'll still know that it was the best film I've seen in years, as well as this year's best film. End TDK fan-rant, lol =]
well, i meant big as in awards moreso than in dollars
I think everyone is expecting this & Australia to fall flat, so no. I think Benjamin Button is the supposedly "Big Frontrunner" it IS on all the awards blogs( as the frontrunner) at least.BTW, The reader is coming out in December Variety announced.Plus US Distributers are fighting over The Young Victoria. So that one may see a 08 release as well.
But that's my point Joey, I think TDK can be the big award winner of the year. =]
The Dark Knight is certainly in contention. There's no doubt about it, and I don't think Joey was implying that. However, it's tough to see the Dark Knight getting any thing for writing (though it might), and other acting awards (save best supp.). It will probably dominate the technical awards, and compete for best picture. The interesting category is best direction. I would love to see Nolan get some love, but this is a toss up. If I was a betting man, I would go against Nolan getting love, but who knows at this point. The point I'm trying to make is that, TDK is a toss-up when we think about the other major awards (save best picture and best supporting). If RR is as good as the book, then it will certainly compete in major acting awards, writing, direction, and best picture. So, Joey's question (though somewhat vague), is not without merit. Also, we should hold on proclaiming TDK the "big" awards (distinguishing from box office success) of the year. I
I think Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, and Screenplay are going to boil down to The Dark Knight, (minus the three of the acting categories), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and Revolutionary Road. I guess I'll just put up my major award predictions to clarify. Best Picture:*The Dark Knight**The Curious Case of Benjamin Button*Revolutionary RoadThe RoadAustralia/DoubtBest Director:**David Fincher*Sam Mendes*Christopher NolanBaz LurhmanJohn Hillcoat/Clint EastwoodBest Actor:***Viggo Mortensen (The Road)*Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road)*Brad Pitt (Benjamin Button)**Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)Benicio Del Toro (only if Che is released)Best Actress: Kate Winslet (RR)Meryl Streep (Doubt)Angelina Jolie (Changeling)Nicole Kidman (Australia)Cate Blanchett (Benjamin Button)Best Supporting Actor:Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)Kodi Smit McPhee (The Road)Michael Sheen (Frost/Nixon)Best Supporting Actress:As always, a weak category with no clear frontrunner, besides maybe Taraji P. Henson for Benjamin ButtonAdapted Screenplay:Benjamin ButtonRevolutionary RoadThe RoadThe Dark KnightFrost/NixonOriginal Screenplay:Burn After ReadingWall-EChangelingBasically, I expect Best Picture to be a three way battle royale between TDK, RR, and Benjamin Button. I expect The Road to be a dark horse contender, which could emerge victorious if the battle royale causes a major vote split. Australia is there by default, simply because my undying hatred for Sean Penn keeps me from including Milk in any category.Nolan, in my opinion, can and will get a director nomination, which will also be a three way battle between Nolan, Mendes, and Fincher. I see John Hillcoat sitting right on the outskirts, only because its going to boil down to a contest between him for being a newcomer, and Clint Eastwood, the oscar king. Fincher will probably win by a hair.The Actor race is interesting, because the one you would think would be the frontrunner may not even be in contention. Che's bad press, 4 hour run time, and distribution issues may keep it completely out of the race. I think Viggo Mortensen is a far greater frontrunner than you guys are giving him credit for. A script review of The Road comfirms that it is just as powerful as the novel, and word around the campfire is that Viggo gives the performance of his career in the film. Of course, you have the other obvious choices, but I still predict Viggo to win here.Best Actress is pretty much gonna be Kate Winslet's year. Even Meryl Streep can't stop her from finally getting her due. Buzz for her performance is tremendous right now. Best Supporting actor is basically Heath Ledger's award. Yes, he may be dead, but I think at this point there really isn't going to be a performace all year that can even come close to him. Like Javier Bardem last year, the bad guy is the most memorable and powerful thing of the film, and will not go unrewarded. Kodi Smit McPhee is a dark horse contender, simply due to the buzz about him being, as Mortensen put it, "The greatest acting partner I've ever had"Supporting Actress, a usual, is a weak category so I wont bother. Adapted Screenplay is gonna be almost identical to Picture, with TDK, RR, and BB duking it out while The Road watches quietly from the sidelines. Original Screenplay is a weak category like last year, and my dislike of Kaufman keeps me from putting him up there. Wall-E sounds like the safe bet for now. Of course, TDK is going to completely dominate tech awards, specifically Editing, Cinematography, Sound, Sound Mixing, Make Up, Visual Effects, and possibly score if eligible.
neo: I agree with most of that...However, I'm not certain the Dark Knight will be a contender in the writing category. First, there are a slew of other films coming out based on adapted material. The competition will be incredibly stiff. And, if the last ten years mean anything, there isn't a ton of parity between the best picture award and the best adapted s/p (though there is some). I think it's safe to predict Heath in best sp and the DK in BP. However, it's a little unclear if it has any chance in the writing and directing category (though Nolan deserves it in both I believe).
correction: The Dark Knight will be a contender in both the directing and writing categories, I'm just not sure it'll get the nod.
You think Viggo Mortensen could be the fronrunner we never saw coming? I do. =]
Viggo is the man. I read the Road, and the material is really good. I think Viggo will nail the role, and get a nod. Viggo in 09!!!
My only real fear about TDK is that it might end up being my Sweeney Todd of this year. No Best Pic or Director nod, and walk away with maybe one tech award. =[ Honestly, Sweeney Todd should have been nominated instead of either Atonement or Michael Clayton, and Burton should have been nominated as well. Here's hoping I/we aren't disappointed in the Academy's poor judgement yet again this year!
TDK is most definitely in the mix, and i'd love to see it get every nom possible, but something tells me this might be more to the Academy's taste....who knows though
RR is definitely a more oscar-y film, Relationship drama, big name actors, big name director with a previous oscar, based on a famous literary work, etc. And I will admit, Sweeney Todd was definitely not to everyone's liking/tastes. But it's really hard for anyone to not love TDK. From what I've seen, the vast majority of people loved it an thought it was incredible, and those few who didn't simply didn't understand it. I mean, most of the criticisms were geared towards the hand to hand combat scenes, the the very dark and epic narrative. Some people just want a summer blockbuster to be mindless entertainment, ala Hancock. In fact, several of the very few critics who didn't enjoy it said they didn't understand why a "superhero/comic book film" was trying to be something more than summer fluff. But that's what will help it. It seems like pretty much everyone (save for a few) can agree that TDK is much more than a comic book film, and simply a damn near perfect and truly moving film.
Th edark knight was a good movie..but not sth different or extraordinary.It's just the buzz that has been created and i hope the academy will not be affected by all that and ive the oscars to masterpiecies.Rr will go well only if the timing is right and if the promotion will be good.I don't hear anything about body of lies and i'm sad of that.It woulds propably be the best spy movie ever.If you don't believe me read the book.