November 1, 2008

Certainty in Oscar Prognostication

Certainty in predicting? That is surely an oxymoron, but at this point of the race, there seems to be a few certainties. By certainty, I mean I am about 85 percent sure this will happen, so I'm not certain at all, but who cares right? As it stands, I think the these five things will certainly occur in this year's Oscar race:

1. Heath Ledger will get nominated for an Oscar.

This is one of the few "locks" of the year. I don't think anyone (save this kid) is doubting Heath Ledger's Oscar chances. His chances of getting a nod are similar to this guy losing his mind on Tuesday.

2. Wall-E will win the Best animation!

I'm not sold on its Best Picture chances, but it is certain to win the Best Animated Feature. Its been a lock since June, and the other potential competitors don't seem to offer the competition sufficient to dethrone Wall-e.

3. Kate Winslet will get nominated for Best Actress (Revolutionary Road or the Reader).

First, She's Kate Winslet. Plus, both movies look really good on the strength of her performance. The Academy loves her (and rightfully so) . The only thing standing in her way of a win is time and these ladies.

4. There will be a wrestler in the Best Acting category.

Not this guy, but Micky Rourke. It will be the perfect redemption story, save the redemption of my fellow Duke alum.

5. Chris Tucker will not get nominated for anything, ever.

Primarily because he's not in anything this year. But, if he was in anything, he still would not get nominated because he's played in the same movie for the last 8 years.

Any more certainties in this year's race?


  1. Very nice, great post. I agree with all five of those predictions, but I love the picture links. Especially the Chris Tucker picture, it is hilarious.

    P.S.: I'm also a Cameron Crazy

  2. Its really funny that you mention Chris Tucker, cause one of my friends is a big Chis Tucker fan (for whatever reason I don't know) and we have a bet going. If Chris Tucker gets an oscar nomination for acting in the next twenty years I owe him $1,000, but after twenty years if Chris Tucker goes nominationless I win $3,000. I just hope my friend doesn't die before the twenty years are up (we have 18 left) because that is money in the bank.

  3. Obama hates white people.

    I am a white person.

    Ergo, Obama hates me.

  4. Your logic is impeccably valid. It's just slightly unsound. Let's go back to movies. I probably should not have injected politics in the discussion. I'm not very politically, just thought it might be funny. My mistake.

  5. Anonymous:

    You're a Cameron Crazy!!!!

    This year is going to be great. We got a solid frontcourt, and our backcourt is one of the best in the nation. I'm looking forward to this year. Final Four is a reachable goal, and we might even be able to dethrone the tar holes. They're stacked, but not unbeatable.

  6. I think there can be a few additions

    1. The Dark Knight will be nominated for Best Picture

    2. Christopher Nolan will be nominated for Best Director

    3. Heath Ledger will WIN Best Supporting Actor

  7. Button and Australia for best picture...

    if i had the control...WALL-E AND CHANGELING FOR BEST PICTURE!!!!

  8. Please let this be the year that Kate the Great finally wins! if Hathaway or Jolie win over her I will lose faith in the Academy forever!