The Best Supporting Actor Fiasco Part II

Well, here we are, October 2007, no idea who the hell is a frontrunner and no idea where the nominations are heading. Last year, Alan Arkin surprised critics and predictors alike (not me) in winning the Supporting Actor award for Little Miss Sunshine over Globe and SAG winner Eddie Murphy. We’ve seen surprise instances like that before in categories; James Coburn winning over Thornton and Harris for Affliction, Marisa Tomei winning over Judy Davis and Joan Plowright for My Cousin Vinny and even though not all agree, Jim Broadbent over Ian McKellen for Iris.

Last year, the first Supporting Actor Fiasco piece came out after most of the big precursors had been announced, this year I present it to you before any nominations are announced. Trying to see how good of predictors I can really be.

Without a doubt, Javier Bardem is a huge contender for No Country for Old Men with dozens of critics singling him out and Oscar predictors having him on all predictions list. His frightening turn should of Oscar written all over it but it does have some things against it. Not exactly a warm hearted film with dark material that may not sit well with certain members. However, Bardem has the “overdue” card to play with a previous nomination for Before Night Falls and a previous snub for The Sea Inside.

Mark Ruffalo who started off back in March the near frontrunner has completely disappeared along with his film Reservation Road in the past weeks. The film received mediocre early reviews but he was called out few times in those reviews for giving a compelling performance. His snub for You Can Count on Me and even in some opinions, We Don’t Live Here Anymore may still be on voters mind. They may feel inspired to give him a makeup nomination.

Philip Seymour Hoffman is having a fantastic year with one powerful performance in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead, the unseen Charlie Wilson’s War and festival favorite The Savages. Hoffman’s buzzed has increased greatly in the past weeks and could get brought in easily in this category even if the latter fails. Voters may want to make him not just a one hit wonder with Oscar. The fact that he won recently for Capote may help his nomination but nearly destroy his win chances unless it’s a unanimous appraisal of artistry. He might suffer from a vote split though, so watch out for great performances for all but no nominations come awards time.

Philip Bosco and Armin Mueller-Stahl have the veteran cards to play with acclaimed performances in The Savages and Eastern Promises. Bosco’s film has yet to be seen by audiences but early reviews calling his performance the best of the year. It also helps that Bosco is starring with other Oscar favorites Laura Linney and the earlier mentioned Hoffman. Mueller-Stahl’s film won the audience award at the Toronto International Film Festival which helps his cause however, he has minimal screen time which doesn’t always spell doom but doesn’t place him at the top. He is a previous nominee for Shine and snubee for Out of Africa which brings him into the spotlight and gives another villainous turn for supporting actors this season. Very reminiscent of past nominee William Hurt could make this year, his year.
Tom Wilkinson is another veteran and previous nominee struggling to capture Oscar. Based on heart, tenacity and sheer brilliance many critics believe he should of won for In the Bedroom. This year he stars opposite winner George Clooney and Michael Clayton has received some of the best reviews of the year and has now been considered a Best Picture contender. But he isn’t cited as much as Clooney and co-star Tilda Swinton as one might hope. He has an uphill climb ahead indeed.

The young and great Paul Dano who shares screen time with Daniel Day-Lewis has been said to give a gripping turn in There Will Be Blood. His work in last year’s, Little Miss Sunshine keeps him fresh in voters minds and able to sneak into the race especially if his film gets a Best Picture nomination. This category is kinder to young ones which also increases his chances.

Russell Crowe gives one of the year’s best performances in 3:10 to Yuma which has been also gained favorable reviews. Its his role in the true story, American Gangster that has people predicting him for a nomination. It’s a little hard to imagine a big star like Crowe coming up in the supporting category but if co-star Denzel Washington goes lead and steals the show, Crowe may have no choice. His performance seems more responsive the outlandish and Oscar has a hard time often reward subtlety.

Other possibilities include Shaun Toub for the hard to watch The Kite Runner and the breakout star of the year thus far, Casey Affleck for his enthralling and absorbing performance in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. Affleck is having an amazing year and his role in Gone Baby Gone should keep him in contention for the remainder of the year. There is also the summer performance that people loved, John Travolta in Hairspray. Travolta, also a previous nominee, has been cited for giving his best performance in years.

Is there anyone else we’re missing? People can throw out Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild, Christian Bale for 3:10 to Yuma, Max Von Sydow for The Diving Bell and Butterfly or Alan Rickman for Sweeney Todd. Truth is we have no idea and some surprises such as Ed Harris in Gone Baby Gone or Morgan Freeman in The Bucket List can join the race in the coming weeks.

Who do I predict to win right now? I’m going to say Mueller-Stahl for Eastern Promises. With a solid campaign and the love for David Cronenberg (not from Oscar obviously) we can see some momentum building for him in the coming months. But saying Stahl is all confidence, the safe answer is obviously Javier Bardem but I don’t like being ordinary. A big part of me wants to put Ed Harris upfront but there’s been no buzz for him so I’ll pass on it. Oh well…It’s a fiasco indeed this year for the supporting actors, a fiasco indeed.