December 18, 2007
No Country for any other film?
Hey all...as No Country for Old Men continues to rake em in at the precursors I've begun to think that it is becoming a juggernaut. This isn't to suggest that it's become unbeatable but I'm having trouble seeing where its major competitor is going to come from. I can think of a bunch of films that have a great shot at a nomination, but none really that can trump No Country. I turn it over to you guys (and girls of course). Let me know who can take down No Country at the Oscars. There Will Be Blood? Juno? Charlie Wilson's War? The Diving Bell and the Butterfly? Drop some knowledge on me people...
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Even though "No Country" seems pretty dominant right now, I think that things will be a bit more balanced at the Oscars.
ReplyDeleteIt'll be "No Country" vs. "Atonement" vs. "Sweeney" at the Kodak!
Quite a few races this year appear to have foregone conclusion frontrunners, and the predictions are mostly as to who else will be nominated. For example:
ReplyDeleteNo Country for Old Men - Best Picture
Daniel Day-Lewis - Best Actor
Javier Bardem - Best Supporting Actor
Cate Blanchett - Best Supporting Actress
Ratatouille - Best Animated Feature
Transformers - Best Visual Effects
Etcetera. And while I doubt that all these frontrunners will win (in particular, Blanchett is losing ground to Amy Ryan, and Ratatouille may face a surprise attack from Persepolis), they are generally accepted as leading the pack.
So for Best Picture, I am personally leaning towards No Country to win. Atonement will definitely be nominated and likely win the BAFTA, but not the Oscar. Sweeney is looking at plentiful nominations, but success may lie merely in Artistics/Techs.
The Globes, the SAG, the PGA and DGA do a balance to the competence.
ReplyDeletei think, like bryan the competition will be "No country" (Critics love) "Sweeney Todd" (Golden Globe, DGA and maybe include SAG love) and "Atoenement" (PGA love). This is the most interesting race to the OScars in years, and the prior boring categores (Best Actress and Supporting Actress) are now interesting because anyone could have teh fourth or fifth spot...
i basically agree with you guys, and recently have come to a counterpoint to my theory about No Country....perhaps the Academy will get tired of hearing their name all the time when they get all the critics awards....this could open the race up to something else...remember, they didn't even nominate Dreamgirls last year, so nobody can be too sure these days
ReplyDeleteDreamgirls also didn't have the support and raves that No Country has. Sweeney Todd is more likey to fall victum to Dreamgirls-itus. The only movie I see being able to knock off No Country for Old Men is There Will be Blood, but even that doesn't have the strong support. No Country, There Will be Blood and Juno are killing the critics and they are the frontrunners with No Country being alone at the top
ReplyDeleteSweeney Todd is beginning to show up more on the Top 10 lists of several critics groups this week, as is Burton as Director. And the BFCA and GG nominations give both picture and director a boost as well.
ReplyDeleteI don't think Sweeney Todd can be compared to either Chicago or Dreamgirls. The source material for Sweeney is far superior to both of those shows, and though I haven't seen the movie yet, based on reports it is a much better movie than Dreamgirls. Dreamgirls, frankly, was a fairly mediocre adaptation of a show that I found enjoyable but not great. The show Sweeney Todd is magnificent.
Chicago is one of the anomalies with AMPAS in the musical category in recent years. I suspect that this was due, in part, to the fact that the slew of leggy babes in the film appealed to the mostly male Academy. Sweeney has the lovely Helena Bonham-Carter, but I still think that Sweeney's appeal cannot be compared to Chicago's.
But I think that Sweeney is looking solid for a best picture nomination, especially if it wins either or both the BFCA and the GG in its category. And Burton will very likely get his first director nomination. About time, too.
Whether it will win is hard to say.
alison- you speak of the film better than I could ever hope to, so props for that! Sweeney Todd could either really turn the Academy on or really turn them off, so it's a crapshoot there...similar things could be said for There Will Be Blood and Juno as well.....wishful thinking on my part has the Academy getting on board with Into the Wild, but at the moment the safest bet for the big contender to No Country's proposed crown continues to be Atonement, for better or worse....let's see if the Globes do anything to change that
ReplyDeleteI agree, Sweeney really is a crap shoot. Almost all of the reviews are great, but the few bad ones are REALLY nasty. AMPAS could react either way. Thanks to all the blogs, everyone can report back after going to early screenings in which voters were present. Some report that their fellow viewers raved over the film. Others reported that there was grumbling over the gore.
ReplyDeletePersonally, Joey, I'm rooting for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly to get in there as well. I can't say enough about this film and have been shamelessly plugging it on every awards-watch site.
Atonement seems like the "Academy type of film", which is why I consider it the frontrunner. If Diving Bell wasn't in a foreign language it would be a shoo-in. And Max von Sydow should get a supporting nomination. Period.
alison- i keep hearing about how amazing Diving Bell is and I mean to see it when I get home on from this semester at college....since you're the only person I know that's seen it, i'm curious to know what you're thoughts are on the original idea for the film to star Johnny Depp....if it was him in the lead role, would the race be completely over already?
ReplyDeleteWith all due respect to Mr. Depp, Joey, I'm sure he would have done an admirable job. But I also think it would have been terrible miscasting. Almaric was the man for the role.
ReplyDeleteDepp would have certainly drawn attention to the film and brought in box office. But it would have become a "Johnny Depp movie" instead of what it is. I think it worked out for the better that he had to bow it since he was filming POTC 3. The film is perfect the way it's cast.
I meant to say "he had to bow out".
ReplyDeleteAnyway, many people already have the lead actor race nailed down to Depp winning for Sweeney Todd. ;)
alison- glad to see someone else isn't a complete Johnny Depp nut lol. Yea, i'm sure once I see it i'll agree with you....Max Von Sydow sounds like a lock just based on what I hear about his character, so i'm very anxious to see his performance
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, Max von Sydow has been ignored in all of the critics awards, plus the BFCA and Golden Globes. I think his chances are slim.
ReplyDeleteThe critics awards don't necessarily mean a lot, but they might have pushed him into the race more.
i know it sounds horrible...but since he's old he always has that puncher's chance...it's a lot easier to overlook a young actor than a veteran one
ReplyDeleteNo Country is definitly deserving of the best picture and best director awards (but hey, I'm a sucker for the Coen Bros.). However, from early reviews of There Will Be Blood, I'm starting to get a little worried. That's the film to watch, not Atonement. However, I still think No Country is the one to beat.
ReplyDeletemost likely...though I still have a partial sensation that the critics like No Country more than the Academy will
ReplyDelete