What did the 1st of many awards tell us?:
- There Will Be Blood has a lot of support still and is still in the race in every category.
- No Country for Old Men is locked and loaded still. Nabbing Boston and Washington makes it still a viable threat.
- Where O' Where is Atonement? Reviews are good, not great and its Rotten Tomato score has dropped to 85%. Who can replace it as the one to beat.
- Juno stays strong and the favorite for Original Screenplay. Ellen Page also captures a bunch of Breakthrough Awards which keeps her in the spotlight.
- Is The Diving Bell and Butterfly the Best Picture contender/frontrunner we didn't see coming. (Maybe I just didn't see it.)
- Ratatouille locks in its Animated Feature nomination. Persepolis could be in but as the Foreign Language selection, the Academy may reserve to just one category.
- Amy Ryan, Amy Ryan, Amy Ryan, what a wonderful surprise. Her performance in Gone Baby Gone is among the best of the year. Blanchett loses a lot of steam even with one win from NYFCO.
- Javier Bardem remains the frontrunner but Hal Holbrook's runner up at LAFCA keeps him as the one most likely to upset.
- Who's going to win Documentary Feature? It's spread out everywhere.
- Marion Cotillard & Julie Christie look to battling it out for the Best Actress statue. This is getting pretty bloody.
- Is Frank Langella in your top five? I had him at ten, but if is nominated, watch out for him to unseat both Day-Lewis and Depp.
- Where is The Kite Runner & American Gangster? There buzz has been quiet today.
- Anamaria Marinca for 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days as a Best Actress nominee. How do you feel about that?
- Tamara Jenkins keeps herself afloat in the screenplay race for The Savages.
- I have no idea who's winning anything anymore.
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I saw The Diving Bell and the Butterfly today and cannot say enough about what a fantastic movie it is. It's emotional and moving, with gorgeous cinematography, and despite its sad subject it's actually uplifting in a way. Maybe because it's just so beautiful. And the actors are all terrific, particularly Max von Sydow, who gets his own paragraph.
ReplyDeleteMax von Sydow has two scenes in the entire movie and they are stellar. His second scene especially had me in tears. If he doesn't get a supporting nod this year, the Academy voters are idiots.
All in all, I'm very pleased with the results. It's unfortunate that so many great films and performances had to be left out.
But how about that Amy Ryan!
Based on all the awards handed out today, you'd have to make No Country for Old Men the frontrunner for best picture now. There Will Be Blood and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly are right in the thick of the race now, too.
ReplyDeleteThe Golden Globes this week will throw in a few more curveballs as well. And there are still a few more critics awards to be announced yet.
ReplyDeleteI expect to see lots of Sweeney nominations, which may help it in the Oscar race. The film has a great chance for best picture, director, actor (this one's a lock) and actress. And possibly one or more supporting actor nods. I could definitely see Sasha Baron Cohen getting a nod here. He's supposedly fantastic in the film.
And what about julian schnabel! He got a huge boost today too... I definitely think he is close to securing a place in the top 5?
ReplyDeleteAnd PTAnderson seems to be back in the race too...
The director race is becoming the one to watch this year, I think!
Anonymous, I definitely want to see Schnabel get a nomination. The Diving Bell was just a fabulous, beautiful movie. The picture, director and Max von Sydow definitely deserve nominations.
ReplyDeleteHaha, who said There Will Be Blood is out? This is looking very positive indeed. Ditto for Diving Bell and No Country.
ReplyDeleteI'm bummed about so little on The Kite Runner or Sweeney Todd. No surprise on the American Gangster and Charlie Wilson snubs.
Also, I saw Atonement tonight. It's not really as special as it's been made out to be. Great movie, could still potentially be nominated, but it has nothing on No Country, which is essentially the new frontrunner.
The thing is, Myles, Atonement may be an 'Academy' kind of film. I think Diving Bell is too; if it were in English it would be a shoo-in.
ReplyDeleteI was very surprised at the lack of appearance of Sweeney. But that will change when the GG's are announced this week.
Maybe this is a good time to remind people that the critics' awards are very useful for predicting... pretty much nothing.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't go so far as to say that winning the New York or LA critics' award is the kiss of death, but if you look at their record, they haven't had any better luck than a monkey with a dart.
SAG, DGA, and to a lesser extent, the Golden Globes are the only awards that are going to help you win that Oscar contest.
Not surprised by Atonement. Like someone else said it is an Academy type of film and the critics don't vote. It WILL get nominated. Don't count out the Kite Runner either.
ReplyDeleteI would definitely put Atonement before There Will Be Blood looking at the History of the Academy. The Departed hurt No Country's chances at winning IMO ( seeing as though a crime thriller won last year).
My two cents. The critic's are good indicators, BUT they don't vote.
Maybe this is a good time to remind people that the critics' awards are very useful for predicting... pretty much nothing.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't go so far as to say that winning the New York or LA critics' award is the kiss of death, but if you look at their record, they haven't had any better luck than a monkey with a dart.
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LOL that's exactly what I was saying, people are getting excited or dissapointed and these are not definite indicators for anything.
"Is The Diving Bell and Butterfly the Best Picture contender/frontrunner we didn't see coming. (Maybe I just didn't see it.)"
ReplyDelete- I actually sent you (or some other staff member) a message a while ago (maybe in July?) stating that DIVING BELL will come out of nowhere and start taking names. Best film of the year, and this is coming from a kid who's seen NO COUNTRY 4 times in 2 weeks.
- Yes, I do have Langella in my top 5, and I have von Sydow in my top 5 for Supporting, which I am he will he will stay in the whole way through. It'd be nice to see a mini-Good Night and Good Luck reunion between he and George. Von Sydow, Holbrook and Bardem should all be nominated this year. Career best for all.
- If either Cotillard or Christie wins, I will have no problems.
- Amy Ryan has been a lock for a while, IMO. Besides Cate Blanchett and Saoirse Ronan, who is a lock? Ryan is not only a lock, but if this is any indication, she could win. (I've seen GBG, and it is deserving). Even as a lock, though, this royal flush is pulling out is nice.
- VIVA No Country! VIVA Diving Bell!
Diving Bell was a good film. Not in my best of the year but definitely a good film.
ReplyDeleteSo, Best Actor at the Oscars is looking like Frank Langella, George Clooney, and of course DDL. I'm not sure about the other 2 spots. Before the critics' awards today, I would've said Johnny Depp, but that's not happening now, so probably James McAvoy and PSH maybe for Before the Devil Knows Your Dead or Denzel.
I'm bummed that "Sweeney Todd" is out of the race now. I was pulling for it but it's dead now.
How the hell is Sweeney Todd out of the race. The Oscar nominations aren't till January. WTF.
ReplyDeletei've been wondering where atonement and kite runner are too!
ReplyDeleteit'd be great if diving bell was the type of foreign film to slip in.
i'm actually a little shocked by the amy ryan love. i think gone baby gone is a great film...is awarding her the way their recognizing the whole film?
Anamaria Marinca...nah!
LA did a great job mixing it up.
Can't wait for the globes and the new york film critics circle.
I think a lot of you guys are forgetting something these ARE THE CRITICS awards. The Academy Awards aren't voted on by the critics. If they were, I'm pretty sure Crash would NOT have won. A movie like Atonement , THe Kite Runner, American Gangster & Charlie Wilson's War( not that I believed it would be nominated anyway) are not critical darlings ( See RT & Metacritic).
ReplyDeleteThese awards can bring something into the spotlight like Diving Bell & Blood, but the real indicaters are the Globes and The Broadcast Film awards. A film like Atonement is not a critical darling , but it is an Oscar film.
The guild awards can say more about chances for Oscar nominations, but they are not necessarily a predictor for wins. Both Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York) and Johnny Depp (Pirates of the Caribbean) won SAG awards for their respective movies. Both were nominated for Oscars and both failed to win.
ReplyDeleteSame with the Golden Globes. Eddie Murphy won the Golden Globe but didn't win the Oscar. And Madonna won the Golden Globe for Evita and wasn't even nominated for an Oscar.
Some things are certain. Last year Forest Whitaker emerged as the frontrunner early. He took the NBR, critics awards and pretty much everything else before going on to nab the Oscar. And everyone knew it was coming.
But in a year like this, where there are so many great films and performances, there really is no way to predict anything definitively. However, a film winning a critics award at least draws it to people's attention. They may be more likely to see the film. And it can help to bring a film's buzz back.
Okay, people need to stop saying that Atonement isn't a critical darling or has received "mixed reviews." Neither is true. This is just a ridiculously good year for films, so critics are choosing their favorites of about ten or more deserving films.
ReplyDeleteIn any other year, "mixed reviews" would be defined by 60-lower 70s on Rotten Tomatoes and 60s/70s on Metacritic. Think about films that have been Academy-type films in the past that critics didn't care much for: Crash, Babel... But Atonement has 85 on RT and 85 on Metacritic. That's incredibly good. Just keep this in focus. Atonement is still in great position and will be a frontrunner again after the HFPA nominate it for everything on Thursday (Drama, Actor, Actress, Director, S. Actress, Screenplay.)
MY OPINION of a critical darling is a 90% or above. Atonement has good reviews ( not mixed , but good), yes, but it is not a critical darling ( In my Opinion).
ReplyDeleteI also noticed how very few pics that sweep the critics awards actually WIN. So like Alison said we still don't know anything.
Last year Helen Mirren took all but one critics' award. Whitaker and Scorsese also dominated, not to mention The Departed taking its fair share. So don't count the critics out, they are a meddlesome little bunch...
ReplyDeleteVery true, although, as I said, I think that last year the frontrunner in the Best Actor race was clear to everyone early on. The big critics award, of course, is the Critics Choice. And last year's winners of that were:
ReplyDeleteBest Picture: The Departed
Best Director: Scorsese
Best Actor: Forest Whitaker
Best Actress: Helen Mirren
Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson
They lined up with the Oscars in every category except for Supporting Actor.
Forget "Atonement". It's a pasionless snooze-fest. But " Juno" is going to be this years little movie that could.
ReplyDeleteR.J.E.
As someone mentioned previously, the critics don't vote, so the fact that a movie is critically accepted or favored, does not mean that a Oscar nod is on the way.
ReplyDeleteWith that said, however, the fact that films such as TWBB and NCfOM are being recognized this early by the critics does have some significance in the race. It keeps their names fresh in the minds of those that are voting. So, presumably, the buzz is exponentially growing with every critic award, etc.
I have yet to see Atonement, but the Div. Bell and NC are great movies...They've certainly set the bar really high.
This year is great for film...so I'm just letting it all soak in until it is time for next year.
I'm a bit surprised that Clooney has won twice now, the rest, not so much. I say it's Clooney vs Day-Lewis. And, like someone else said, until last night I would have placed Depp in Actor Top5. Now? I very much doubt it, he will be nominated for a Golden Globe and that's probably it. Same old story. I really hope he will win an Oscar someday, brilliant actor and way overdue.
ReplyDeleteBest Actress: I'm more than pleased, Contilard or Chirstie, I'm good with it.
I think the Golden Globes will give a wider more wholesome view of the greatest contendors. I personally am more interested in the Best Actress possibilities and right now I feel that the ones most likely to become the actual nominees in February 2008 are:
ReplyDeleteJulie Christie: Away From Her
Marion Cotillard: La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie: A Mighty Heart
Laura Linney: The Savages
Ellen Page: Juno
Anyone else agree??
In the Best Actress Category forget about Keira in Atonement,this movie is out of nominations.Bring back the most sincere best female performarce of the year: Jodie Foster in The Brave One.
ReplyDeleteSo the five Best Actress:
Julie Christie
Marion Contilard
Ellen Page
Jodie Foster
Angelina Jolie
NYFCC results coming in.
ReplyDeleteAmy Ryan, Amy Ryan, Amy Ryan for Best Supporting Actress. She's mowing Cate down.
Julie Christie got Best Actress.
And Best Actor - Javier Bardem for NCFOM. They put him in this category, not supporting.
Joel & Ethan Coen got Best Screenplay.
Here's the link to NYFCC's site for the rest.
http://www.nyfcc.com/awards.php?year=2007
badger, it ain't over till it's over. I wouldn't count Depp out just yet. His performance in Sweeney is being raved, he's a lock for a GG nomination, and there's still the SAG awards.
ReplyDeleteI still consider him in the top five, and very high up.
badger, it ain't over till it's over. I wouldn't count Depp out just yet. His performance in Sweeney is being raved, he's a lock for a GG nomination, and there's still the SAG awards.
ReplyDeleteI still consider him in the top five, and very high up.
NYFCC made an error when posting. Javier Bardem is up as Best Supporting Actor now. Daniel Day-Lewis got Best Actor. And the Coens got Directing.
ReplyDeleteallison flyn: true that no one knows anything for sure, but I don't see it happening at all. I'm sure he will get a GG nom, but I'm not sure he will win it and even if he does, I still don't see an Oscar nom, no matter how much I want to. Hollywood is famous form snubbing Depp, why should this be any different?
ReplyDeleteI think we'll know a lot more when the BFCA noms are announced tomorrow....
ReplyDeleteVlad Ivanov! Is Supporting Actor likely for this fellow? His win definitely increases his chances (or puts him in the spotlight,even though nobody seems to have noticed). When he wins something again,then you guys will noticed. So, enough with the "There will be Blood" stuff. Who needs it? Supporting Actor category is so boring it's hopeless. You guys need to shake some stuff up. Best Picture will take care of itself on its own.
ReplyDeleteMy biggest surprise at the moment is the complete lack of support for Cate Blanchett. Even if it's only the critics, I didn't expect so much Amy Ryan support (not that it's disappointing mind you). Runner up would be George Clooney, whose nomination prospects aren't looking so dark horse-y anymore.
ReplyDeleteAnd Alison, I wasn't clear when discussing Atonement: I agree that it was a great film, and that it'll be right at home at the Academy. I certainly think it will be nominated. I was referring instead to my personal reaction, and now I don't place it as high as No Country in terms of who I think will win.
Here's my current predictions (for what they're worth):
Atonement
No Country For Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood OR Juno
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly OR The Kite Runner
I agree with you that Atonement, No Country and Sweeney are the three pictures to be feared in the race, Myles.
ReplyDeleteHaven't seen Atonement yet, but I'm looking forward to it.
This is a relentless week in terms of awards watching. Cate did get at least some critical nods. And hopefully she will be on the Critics Choice picks tomorrow.
Fingers crossed. Goodness knows she deserves it.
ReplyDelete