SAG Predictions: The Supporting Categories

The coveted Screen Actors Guild Awards, a wonderful honor bestowed upon someone by his or her peers have become in the past years the deciding factor or momentum gainer a person or a film needed for recognition.

Last year, SAG opted for conventional choices with the Leading Actor and Supporting Actress category matching up 5 for 5 with AMPAS. The supporting actor race went with Leonardo DiCaprio for The Departed but in the end went AMPAS went with Mark Wahlberg from the same film. The Best Performance by a Cast Ensemble category has always been a wild race. Equivalent to AMPAS Best Picture category in SAG perspective, they’re rewarding the performances rather than the overall filmmaking aspect. 2007 they chose The Departed, Babel, and Little Miss Sunshine which would all go on to be nominated for Best Picture. Dreamgirls was the snub that no one saw coming and Bobby was an actor’s film with 22 extraordinary actors working together; SAG couldn’t resist.

What could this year hold for us? They’re seems to be very few locks at this point in the race as oppose to last season when Best Actress was sewed up for months and the others just fell into place. In the Supporting Actress category, Cate Blanchett and Amy Ryan seem to be looking to go head to head on Oscar night for the trophy at this point. Saoirse Ronan, the naïve and bewildered young performer from Atonement seems good for a nomination. SAG loves to nominate at least one child performer going with left-field choices like Keisha Castle-Hughes for Whale Rider or Freddie Highmore for Finding Neverland. If Ronan fails to pick up this easy get, than her Oscar chances will be in jeopardy. Ronan may split votes with fellow cast members Vanessa Redgrave and Romola Garai who all give extraordinary performances. Tilda Swinton also seems ripe for the picking for Michael Clayton and with leading man George Clooney likely to get nominated, he may pull her in with him. Ruby Dee, Marisa Tomei, Kelly MacDonald, and Catherine Keener will all be looking to nab that fifth spot for much needed momentum to make it to the Kodak Theatre. If Julia Roberts pulls off another surprise like her Golden Globe nod, than it will be safe to say she is in for Charlie Wilson‘s War. As of now:

1. Cate Blanchett-I’m Not There
2. Amy Ryan-Gone Baby Gone
3. Saoirse Ronan-Atonement
4. Tilda Swinton-Michael Clayton
5. Catherine Keener-Into the Wild
6. Vanessa Redgrave-Atonement
7. Ruby Dee-American Gangster
8. Kelly MacDonald-No Country for Old Men
9. Marisa Tomei-Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
10. Julia Roberts-Charlie Wilson’s War

The Supporting Actor race is a little more clear but still wild in choosing a fifth spot. Javier Bardem is all but assured a win for his haunting portrayal in No Country for Old Men. Casey Affleck has two great performances this year and should not go unnoticed. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford is his signature role and should land him in top five. Tom Wilkinson seems safe with his performance in Michael Clayton but can all three actors from one film get in with the film struggling to get a Best Picture nod. Does anyone remember Iris? It is possible but Swinton seems the most vulnerable. Hal Holbrook needs this to make a serious threat for Javier Bardem for his six minutes of bliss in Into the Wild. If he misses this than this might be the end for him and people will be looking for a surprise come Oscar nomination morning. What about that fifth spot? Philip Seymour Hoffman for Charlie Wilson’s War, John Travolta for Hairspray, Ben Foster for 3:10 to Yuma, Paul Dano for There Will Be Blood, Max Von Sydow for The Diving Bell and Butterfly, Armin Mueller-Stahl for Eastern Promises, and Ethan Hawke for Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead are all battling for that last spot. Any one of them, for numerous reasons, can capture a spot in this race. A curveball can come and two men can edge out a contender we may have foresaw as safe. The not so confident predictions are:

1. Javier Bardem-No Country for Old Men
2. Casey Affleck-The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
3. Tom Wilkinson-Michael Clayton
4. Max Von Sydow-The Diving Bell and Butterfly
5. Ben Foster-3:10 to Yuma
6. Hal Holbrook-Into the Wild
7. Philip Seymour Hoffman-Charlie Wilson’s War
8. John Travolta-Hairspray
9. Armin Mueller-Stahl-Eastern Promises
10. Paul Dano-There Will Be Blood
    
    NEXT UP: The Leading Categories

What are you predicting for the Supporting categories for the Screen Actors Guild Awards? Share your comments.