December 18, 2007

SAG Predictions: Leading Categories

The Leading categories

This has been the SAG’s forte in predicting Oscar’s final five however, they love to throw one beloved performance or even reward one that may not have a shot at winning come Oscar night.

In 2003, they gave Johnny Depp the Best Actor for his comedic turn in Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl over favorites Sean Penn and Bill Murray. In that same category they nominated Peter Dinklage for his under the radar yet striking performance in The Station Agent. This is a prime example how SAG will choose the most likely but stay true to what and who they love.

This year, the Best Actor race is tighter than ever with only Daniel Day-Lewis looking like the only lock for his portrayal in There Will Be Blood. Johnny Depp is very likely to be included in the top five for his musical performance in Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street. He is extremely popular amongst the actor’s guild and is likely to upset Day-Lewis come Oscar night. George Clooney might be the most popular of them all for his political thriller Michael Clayton. Everyone knows that his Syriana win at the 2006 Oscar ceremony was a fluke and not deserved because his shining moments that year were his writing and directing of Good Night, and Good Luck. The SAG’s decided that Giamatti was a better candidate and chose him for Cinderella Man. Clayton is a richer performance and one that they can stand proudly behind. The last two spots are when it gets tricky:

Emile Hirsch and James McAvoy are competing for the newbie spot amongst the actors and all stand strong in Best Picture candidates. Frank Langella’s late surge of buzz as taken quite well but was left off at the Golden Globes. He’s needs this to stay alive in the race for sure. Viggo Mortensen may find some sentiment after being left off the list before for A History of Violence and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers. His Eastern Promises performance is his best to date and the stars may be in line for him. Ryan Gosling is hot off his nomination last year but his film is rather small in the scheme of things. Tom Hanks is one of the best actors of our generation and if Charlie Wilson’s War decides to make a play than he can make the cut. John Cusack hopes to make this his last hope for a nomination for Grace is Gone however, he hasn’t landed any big nominations yet so his chances are slim.

Predictions Are:

1. Daniel Day-Lewis-There Will Be Blood
2. Johnny Depp-Sweeney Todd
3. George Clooney-Michael Clayton
4. Frank Langella-Starting Out in the Evening
5. Viggo Mortensen-Eastern Promises

6. Emile Hirsch-Into the Wild
7. James McAvoy-Atonement
8. Ryan Gosling-Lars and the Real Girl
9. John Cusack-Grace is Gone
10. Tom Hanks-Charlie Wilson’s War

The Best Actress race has been a battle between to early year favorites; Julie Christie’s Alzheimer victim portrayal in Away from Her and Marion Cotillard’s biopic performance in La Vie en Rose. They are your two locks for nominations and should get in there easily. Ellen Page is your younger actress who SAG loves to nominate and should take the next spot. In addition, Juno’s buzz has been straight forward for the past few weeks and making quite an impression. This may be the surge it needs. The final two spots are the tricky parts.

Angelina Jolie is another early year favorite playing a real woman in tragedy-stricken film A Mighty Heart. Amy Adams is an actress who has been living her dream and is the classic sweetheart that SAG can just eat up. What hurts her chances? Enchanted really has nothing more than her performance and music and aside from that, it’s a Cool World meets Who Framed Roger Rabbit? type film and do films like that go rewarded? Maybe. Keira Knightley is in a best picture frontrunner Atonement however; her performance is minimal compared to her co-stars Ronan, Garai, and Redgrave. She really doesn’t stick out in your mind once the film ends. She is definitely vulnerable. Cate Blanchett might be looking to make a double play here for her performance in the god awful Elizabeth: The Golden Age. Her film is so atrocious and does she really need two nominations? We know she’s Cate the Great, just let her battle Ryan in supporting. Helena Bonham Carter has a hurdle to jump for Sweeney Todd but word has it her singing is as awful as Blanchett’s film but her acting is superb. The fact that she’s with director Tim Burton and was miscast might stick out in voter’s minds. The lovely Laura Linney has been ignored all season long for The Savages and is in the most need for this nomination. If she fails at this, her chances diminish and we have to wait for her in her upcoming project to reward her.

What does all this mean? A lot of women trying to fit into five spots with some great ones destined to be left off.

Predictions are:

1. Julie Christie-Away from Her
2. Marion Cotillard-La Vie en Rose
3. Ellen Page-Juno
4. Angelina Jolie-A Mighty Heart
5. Laura Linney-The Savages

6. Keira Knightley-Atonement
7. Amy Adams-Enchanted
8. Helena Bonham Carter-Sweeney Todd
9. Cate Blanchett-Elizabeth: The Golden Age
10. Jodie Foster-The Brave One


  1. Leave Cate off the ballot because her performance was subpar. Why leave her out because she is vying for a BSA statue?
    She gave two great performances this year, why penalize her because others will not get nominated or just because she already owns a statue? Her film was bad but she was not.

  2. I agree with you... sean Penn, Diane Lane and Angelina Jolie was nominated for good perfromances in bad films and in the case of Angelina she won.
    My predictions for Best Actress:
    -the trinity: Cotillard-Christie-Page (with only a hugue surprise they'll be nominated)
    Long shot:
    -Angelina jolie (They're love the physical transformations)
    fifth spot:
    -Amy Adams: they love comedic performances and plus for the Critics choice nomination
    -Helena Bonham Carter: She's a bad singer but gives a very good performance... intersting case.
    -Cate Blanchett: Extreme beloved by the SAG: Bandits nominations and reception in the lord of the rings trilogy. plus for the Critics choice nomination
    -Keira Knightley: The weakest contender, only for the film, but the snub of two years ago instead of Ziyi Zhang...
    -Laura Linney: Beloved by the actors and important resource of the competition. My dark horse.
    -Nikki Blonsky: Only with "hairspray" will nominated for best ensemble
    -Jodie Foster: Statu quo
    My predictions For BEst Actor:
    -Prior winners (Day-Lewis and Depp)
    Long shot:
    -George Clooney
    -Viggo mortensen: The lord of the rings effect
    -Emile Hirsch: my drak horse. American breahthough and physical transformation with deglam power. Plus if the ensemble cast could be nominated (Good posibility). And Sean Penn is beloved by importants celebrities: Eastwood, Nicholson, Robbins, Sarandon, Stone...
    For sixth spot:
    -Frank Langella: favorite for sentimental fact (Garner effect)
    -James McAvoy: ONLY changes for nomination but I doubt it.
    -Tom Hanks: Star power
    -Ryan Gosling: Could be happen. Plus for Critics choice nomination

  3. It is ridiculous that many critics and reviews say "Cate is a good actress, she will get nominated for many years to come" "so we should give the award to someone else." How preposterous is that? Give the award to the actor who gave the best performance. If that actor has been nominated 5 times in a row and already won 3 then so be it. If Cate gave the best performance then give her the dang award.

  4. Why say this is John Cusack last hope for an Oscar? He hasn't stop making movies. As long as he continues to do movies he still has a chance. He is a brillant and talented actor and an Oscar has been way overdue.

  5. To the last anonymous, it is Cusack's last hope for Grace is Gone, not in life.

  6. I'm really disappointed that Marion Cotillard has been left behind in the Ellen Page post-"Juno" buzz and the much lauded Julie Christie.

    I found Cotillard's performance and physical transformation to be revolutionary and I'm not the only one: Cate Blanchett and Ryan Gosling both praised her and she just won the African American Film Critics Association (AAFCA) even though she's white.

    Despite this, I think American critics have largely forgotten about her (with the exception of Los Angeles Film Critics and Boston). I do agree that the sure trinity is Christie-Cotillard-Page, but all have varying factors that detract from their chances. Cotillard, whose role is extremely Oscar-friendly, has a few hurdles to jump, but I really hope she makes it to the stage on Oscar night.

  7. i dont like this "she will win later" they said that about Peter O'Toole and look at him 8 noms no wins. one of the greatest actors of all time and he hasnt won. so that stuff is bull, if they deserve it give it to them.

  8. I think Viggo Mortensen is a phenomenal actor. His choices in roles are always interesting and varied. He does not buy into a 'type'. He absolutely should have been nominated for History of Violence but wasn't. I thought Eastern Promises was a phenomenal movie and his performance was brilliant. I hope that this is his year.

  9. I agree, notaprincess, and I hope he will be nominated.

    He's been doing well in the precursors, so I'm keeping my hopes up for him.

  10. american gangster better get nominated at least for something it was 2 good of a movie to get passed by. i would be very disappointed if denzel doesn't get a nod.

  11. American Gangster absolutely, positively should not get nominated . . . for anything. It was a good film with some good performances, but there are way too many that are way better. If Denzel gets nominated, it is a token nomination. Same with Hanks for Charlie Wilson's War.

    I have to say, I think James McAvoy will get in there, and I don't think Emile Hirsch is nearly that high on the list. There is no way Hanks is that low. He is two beloved of an actor. Langella will get left out.

    I think you are way off on actress race. Angelina won't get nominated, and neither will Linney. I love Linney, and so does the SAG, but the movie and her performance are not living up to expectations. Amy Adams will get in there. After that, I think it is between Blanchett and Bonham-Carter.

    As usual, I am excited to see what happens!