Nine films, five spots. What can happen next week when nominations are announced? I'll tell you this:
No Country for Old Men is the only locked film in the Best Picture race no matter what critics are saying. On nomination morning, that is the only one if not called, would surprise the entire Oscar world. Atonement has floundered big time in the past weeks; being absent from WGA, DGA, PGA, and SAG did serious damage. Even the Editor's passed on the film. Is it this year's Letters from Iwo Jima & Munich? I sincerely hope so.
Michael Clayton has made a serious threat to make it in the Picture race. Clooney, Wilkinson, & Swinton are all likely to be nominated if not locked, and Gilroy has the DGA on his side. It has the momentum, it has the star power, but Gilroy's nomination would be the most vulnerable for a snub.
There Will Be Blood has a chance to shine in as this year's Gangs of New York. With star Daniel Day-Lewis locked in, the film has been making some serious waves. Paul Thomas Anderson has the DGA, the film has PGA, and a whole lot of tech guilds have taken notice. It seems to be a very likely nomination.
Into the Wild, which I believe to be this year's Best Picture winner at this point, has made some shook and jives this awards season. No Globe or PGA love but gets WGA, SAG, and DGA. I'd be surprised if it didn't make the cut personally, but Oscars do tend to forget the great ones often.
Juno, The Diving Bell & the Butterfly, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, and American Gangster are all fighting for some love too.
No Country for Old Men is the only locked film in the Best Picture race no matter what critics are saying. On nomination morning, that is the only one if not called, would surprise the entire Oscar world. Atonement has floundered big time in the past weeks; being absent from WGA, DGA, PGA, and SAG did serious damage. Even the Editor's passed on the film. Is it this year's Letters from Iwo Jima & Munich? I sincerely hope so.
Michael Clayton has made a serious threat to make it in the Picture race. Clooney, Wilkinson, & Swinton are all likely to be nominated if not locked, and Gilroy has the DGA on his side. It has the momentum, it has the star power, but Gilroy's nomination would be the most vulnerable for a snub.
There Will Be Blood has a chance to shine in as this year's Gangs of New York. With star Daniel Day-Lewis locked in, the film has been making some serious waves. Paul Thomas Anderson has the DGA, the film has PGA, and a whole lot of tech guilds have taken notice. It seems to be a very likely nomination.
Into the Wild, which I believe to be this year's Best Picture winner at this point, has made some shook and jives this awards season. No Globe or PGA love but gets WGA, SAG, and DGA. I'd be surprised if it didn't make the cut personally, but Oscars do tend to forget the great ones often.
Juno, The Diving Bell & the Butterfly, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, and American Gangster are all fighting for some love too.
- Juno is contemporary, fun, and popular with audiences.
- The Diving Bell & the Butterfly has Julian Schnabel at a near lock for a Best Director nomination. The foreign language barrier isn't too much when the film has been praised as much as it has.
- Sweeney Todd definitely has the popularity of Johnny Depp on its side along with Director, Tim Burton. As lukewarm as the film is from being great nor bad, it needs #1 votes which may be scarce on the Academy's part.
- American Gangster is another lukewarm effort. Definitely not Ridley Scott's best film with so-so performances isn't the materials needed for Best Picture. BAFTA nod helps a lot but does it mean anything? Probably not.
Besides these 9 films, are there any surprises to come through? Of course.
3:10 to Yuma could show up, maybe Haispray (God I hope not.) What if the Academy becomes supercool and nominates The Bourne Ultimatum. (Yeah right, they're not cool like that yet.)
So who is going to make the cut in the Best Picture race? Why don't you tell us, comment the post.
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First off, Sweeney Todd was not lukewarm. In fact, it was the most dramatically satisfying and best film of the year. A lot of people have been complaining about films with bad endings this year. Sweeney wraps everything up nice and clean. Don't confuse personal taste with quality.
ReplyDeleteThe only reason Sweeney Todd has been suffering in terms of precursor awards is because while critics, fans of the Broadway show, and newcomers to the story have been raving about it, those with snobbery tastes have collectively shrugged their shoulders. The film is not for everyone. In fact, none of Stephen Sondheim's musicals have been for everyone. Unlike extravagant, all over the place, feel good musicals like Hairspray, Dreamgirls, Chicago, etc., Sweeney Todd uses the music as the driving force of the plot, with the majority of the exposition in the lyrics. People aren't used to this and expecting something more bright and staged. That does not make it lukewarm. Again, personal taste doesn't coincide with quality.
That being said, I feel that it will be hard for Sweeney Todd to make the shortlist, though it wouldn't suprise me if it did. However, I won't be too upset if it didn't The academy has never liked Burton or his work. Big Fish was one of the best films of 2003 and a very oscar friendly film. Yet, only an original score nom. Granted, it was up against LOTR: ROTK that year, which was not going to be stopped except by some act of God.
ReplyDeleteI predict the Best picture shortlist will be
No Country for Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will be Blood
Atonement
Into the Wild
Alternates would be Juno and Michael Clayton.
Clayton, I wouldn't compare There Will Be Blood to Gangs of New York. The only similarity between the two movies is that Daniel Day-Lewis is in both of them. Gangs was a SCORSESE film. I think PTA's great work and his courage to really stretch himself with this film is being recognized and lauded, but he's not Scorsese. I don't know whether that's good or bad - Scorsese was snubbed for a win many, many times.
ReplyDeleteI know TWBB did well in all of the precursors and it will likely be in for BP, but I really don't see it garnering the number of nominations that Gangs did. Of course, I could be wrong. I just think that this is more of a long shot than people think for that many nominations. Remember the preferential balloting system. There could very well be a group in AMPAS that loved the movie enough to put at #1 in many categories - the question is whether it will be enough. There were many people that hated this movie, or respected the filmmaking but didn't love it. It wouldn't surprise me if that's the mix of reactions in the Academy as well.
With all the precursor love, I think it's likely in for BP and BD, possibly Cinematography, Greenwood's score, Lead Actor and maybe one or two other tech nods.
If we go by the precursors, I would say the following films are in:
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Michael Clayton
Juno
There are the 5 films that got all 3: DGA, PGA and WGA nominations, plus the top 3 got nods from several tech guilds as well.
But: Atonement (which I think could get a lot of #1 votes and get in), Into the Wild (which missed PGA but could still get in due to the Sean Penn factor) or Sweeney Todd (another film that has a passionate following and may garner enough #1 votes to push it in despite the guild snubs) could replace either Juno or Michael Clayton.
And as I've commented in other posts here, I wouldn't be at all surprised if TWBB misses the BP/BD lineups altogether. It seems unlikely with its momentum and support, but it wouldn't shock me if it got left out.
FINAL Prediction
ReplyDeletePICTURE
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Juno
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
The Diving Bell & the Butterfly
ReplyDeleteInto The Wild
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
I'm gonna go with the top 5 prediction I've had since the SAG nominations were released.
ReplyDeleteNo Country for Old Men
Into the Wild
Juno
There Will be Blood
Atonement
I think that The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and maybe Michael Clayton could knock off Atonement.
By the way, where is all this Into the Wild optimism coming from? Don't get me wrong, It was my favorite film of the year and I am enjoying the optimism, but I just want to know exactly why you guys have it as the likely best picture winner.
redlightning, it's all about the Sean Penn love.
ReplyDeleteGotcha. While I am pretty much an anti-Sean Penn guy, there is no doubting that he made a great movie and he along with everyone else involved with the film deserve credit.
ReplyDeleteYeah, thats really all it comes down to. The AMPAS always love actors turned directors and tend to award them before awarding other better film just for the publicity. I can see it now, "SEAN PENN WINS BIG OSCARS FOR DIRECTORIAL DEBUT! UPSETS NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN!" Honestly, Into the Wild was good, but I think all the votes for it are out of sentimentalism and attention whores.
ReplyDeleteWith all due respect to Sean Penn, and I do love him as an actor and commend his passion for this project, I will be very upset if he wins over the Coens. That would really suck. In fact, I would consider it a travesty that goes right up there with Costner and Dances With Wolves beating Scorsese and Goodfellas.
ReplyDeleteIts a huge possibility. All I can say is I'm waiting for the day when all the older members of the academy are gone and we get some new blood in there, hopefully with less squeamish and elitist sensibilities.
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping for the Coen brothers get the respect they deserve and win the director Oscar, but I am hoping that Into the Wild can take the best picture Oscar.
ReplyDeleteOh, and btw, Clayton, if 3:10 to Yuma shows up in the BP nominations on Tuesday I will be very happy. A seriously underrated film this year. Has the Academy ever honored remakes?
ReplyDeleteOther than The Departed of course which had two things going for it: (1) it was a remake of a Hong Kong film that probably many never saw, and (2) it was Scorsese.
redlightning, I agree. I would be fine with a BP/BD split, as long as the Coens finally get their Directorial Oscar.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't. I'm personally getting a bit tired of splits.
ReplyDeleteHave the Coen's never won best director? I, for some reason, assumed they had for something somewhere along the line. That's shocking! Now I'm really rooting for them to take the director Oscar! I honestly thought No Country was the best job by a director this year.
ReplyDeleteThey've won screenplay awards, redlightning, not directing.
ReplyDeletePeter Travers is my new hero.
ReplyDeleteCheck out this open letter he wrote to the academy.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v81/LynJenn/Miscellaneous/LettertoAcademyTravers.jpg
I have a good feeling about all of these five:
ReplyDeleteNo Countyr for Old Men
There Will be Blood
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
Personally I wish Sweeney Todd would take the place of Michael Clayton but my gut goes with the latter becasue of the love it's gotten and Clooney.
Does anyone else see the parallel between last year's Dream Girls (with all the buzz at beginning of the season and no nom) and Atonement (all the buzz at the beginning of the season and probably no nom)?
Your link doesn't work, neo.
ReplyDeleteI didn't think it would work. I'll try fixing it.
ReplyDeleteInto the Wild all the way!!!
ReplyDeleteI've seen Into the Wild, and I'm not impressed.
ReplyDeleteThe kid was an idealistic whiner. Yes, It's a great directorial effort from Sean Penn. And, yes, emile hirsh is great in the film...but is it really a better film than No Country? Does it really deserve the BP award more? I don't think so. And, I hope the Academy sees it that way. but sentimentalism usually prevails.
Prediction:
There Will Be Blood
No Country
Into the Wild (winner, unfortunately)
Juno
Michael Clayton
you are all FUCKING INSANE! Into the Wild CAN NOT win best picture! It simply can't! It's box office is under $20 million dollars. A winner hasn't grossed under $50 million since The Last Emperor back in 1987 and before that The Deer Hunter in 1978. I said it once and I will say it again, Into the Wild CAN NOT win!
ReplyDeleteMy predictions:
ReplyDelete*no country for old men
*there will be blood
*juno
Fouth spot:
*into the wild
*The diving bell and the butterfly
fifth spot:
*atonement
*Sweeney todd
*michael Clayton`
*american gangster
Conclusion:
*The diving bell and the butterfly
*Juno
*no country for old men
*there will be blood
*between the golden globe winners: atonement vs. sweeney Todd (I prefer Sweeney todd but atonement is oscarsih, only I hope keira Knightley doesn't get a nomination for these awful performance / Blanchett, Adams, bonham Carter, Linney and even Wei are better than her
Yeah, the academy just isnt cool enough to nominate Bourne.
ReplyDeleteI agree with AJ. I just do not understand why Into the Wild is considered a threat to win.
My predicted 5 (in order):
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Michael Clayton
Juno
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Next 5 (in order):
Into the Wild
Sweeney Todd
Atonement
American Gangster
3:10 to Yuma
The worst thing to happen to Juno is its high box office return. It is no long the "little movie that could" that the academy likes to nominate, but no alternative puts it in the top 5. The top 3 on my next 5 are all fighting to take Diving Bell out of the race, but the PGA nomination and the GG win for Foreign film and best director throw it into the top 5.
INTO THE WILD is by far the most overrated movie of the year. Thank God that Emile Hirsch died at the end...I was getting so sick of his gay, whining attitude. That being said, it will still get nominated. Atonement is going to get nominated, so stop throwing in Michael Clayton, a stupid movie with a liberal agenda to bad mouth the corporate world. No Country is a lock as well, and I really hope that Sweeney Todd gets thrown in there, too.
ReplyDeleteThese are my predictions, which I think will be 100% correct come next week.
Atonement
No Country For Old Men
Into The Wild
Sweeney Todd
Juno
I'm sticking with
ReplyDeleteNo Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Juno
Sweeney Todd
Atonement
Honestly, I feel that Into the Wild and Michael Clayton are extremely overrated, forgettable and undeserving. I don't see either of them attracting many number one votes. I would be happy to see The Diving Bell and the Butterfly nominated, but I question whether enough Oscar voters would have seen it.
I keep seeing people say that they hated Into the Wild because of the character played by Emile Hirsch. First off, the film is based off a true story, so to change the character would compromise the validity of the movie. I admit, Chris McCandless seemed disillusioned and "whiny" at times, but that's part of the tragedy of the story. It seemed like Chris was a great kid who touched many people's lives, but followed his wrong instincts which led to his death. As you learn in the film and through his writings, Chris McCandless learned his lesson as he was dying, which was another tragedy of the film.
ReplyDeleteAbout the film itself, I found it to be a great overall effort. ALL of the performances were strong, as were the writing and directing. Also, if you read the book, you will find how much the film was true to the book, which means it was true to the best account of what really happened. In my mind, that's what made Into the Wild a great film.
Sorry for the novel of a post...
You're absolutely right about the overall effort on Into the Wild, redlightning, and for this reason I would not at all begrudge Sean Penn, nor the film, getting a nomination. But if Penn won over the Coens, or better yet over Lumet (if he gets a nomination - keeping my fingers crossed no matter how unlikely it is) it would irk me just a bit.
ReplyDeleteAs mentioned before, Into the Wild is a good movie...deserves praise. But, you can't deny the fact the Christopher was pretty fucking stupid. With that said, it is a great sentimental piece...It took death for him to realize the he was an idiot, and took 'things' for granted.
ReplyDeletebut No Country is a much better film. It's been praised more by critics and quasi-critics (you and me). It's made more money. People are still debating the movie as we speak. The performances were all great, and it is much more thought provoking film.
The only thing I learned in ItW is that you shouldn't eat poisonous food, burn money, and travel long distances with rice as your main staple of food. Thanks Christopher McCandless.
I'm guessing that No Country for Old Men and There will be Blood are solid locks for nomination.
ReplyDeleteI'd guess that Michael Clayton is almost as solid, given the strong performances from Clooney, Wilkinson and Swinton, plus the Seventies feel of the piece which many critics mentioned.
As for the others, I suspect that neither Atonement nor Sweeney Todd will make the cut. The Globe win for Atonement came too late to change the Academy vote, and the film had been deflating before the Globes.
Diving Bell would be a good choice, but I don't know if the Academy will go for a French-language film as Best Picture. I doubt it.
My guess for final list:
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Michael Clayton
Into the Wild
Juno
When it comes to the winner, though, I wonder if No Country and Blood won't cancel each other out. In that case, the race will come down to Into the Wild (helped by the love for the actor-turned-director) vs. Michael Clayton...and I'd guess that Michael Clayton would take it in a one-on-one match.
MARION COTILLARD FOR BEST ACTRESS!!!
ReplyDeleteI am so sick and tired of people bashing Into the Wild just because it is getting praise over other films. Even if one film gets more praise than another it does not make it a better or worse film. So don't bash a film because you are rooting for another. Take all of the films for what they are.
ReplyDeleteI'm only bashing ItW because I hate people like Chris McCandless. Its a good movie. Its not better than No Country. Not even close. I can provide a substantive argument. But simply because someone bashes a movies doesn't mean they are doing so because its getting praise over other movies. Perhaps they do have reasonable problems with ItW. Again, I don't like the main character but you can't deny the greatness of the movie. With that said, there are better movies out there IMO.
ReplyDelete