January 17, 2008

What better way to prep for the Oscar noms than...

by seeing Cloverfield this weekend!!

I kid of course, though I am totally going to be seeing this flick as early as possible....looks 47 kinds of cool.


Today's musing....which film is most likely to not get the nominations we/they are expecting? Will No Country for Old Men somehow be snubbed in a major way? Will the Academy not like Juno or Into the Wild as much as others?

Personally, I think they may not be too into There Will Be Blood, but I still think it'll get nominated in a lot of categories simply out of respect for what PTA did.

What do you guys think?

15 comments:

  1. Even though There Will Be Blood has gotten critical acclaim and lots of guild love, it's definitely a film that AMPAS may not have gone for. I've seen three responses among people: loved it, hated it or respected but the filmmaking but couldn't really embrace it. Were there enough voters who loved it enough to put it at #1? We'll see.

    I'm also not feeling Juno as a BP, even though it did well in the guilds. I could be wrong, but the only categories in which I see Juno as (almost) sure bets are Ellen Page in best actress and Diablo Cody in best original screenplay.

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  2. I'll probably get killed for say this, but I think the most likely "lock" not to be nominated is Marion Cotillard. I'm not saying she won't/doesn't deserve a nomination, but some might not have seen the film and could have loved the "Don't Count Out" candidates such as Amy Adams, or Helena B. Carter or Keira Knightley. I still think she will be nominated, but I wont be too surprised if she wasnt.

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  3. I am hopin for "The Diving Bell And The Butterfly" to get a BP nod. i feel it was a far superior film to "American Gangster," or "Atonement."
    my ideal line-up would be:
    1. No Country For Old Men- it's locked and loaded. baisicly set to be nominated.
    2. Into The Wild - god i hope it gets nominated. my favorite film of the year.
    3. The Diving Bell And The Butterfly - although american films havn't been weak, i hope it sneaks in.
    4. There Will Be Blood - unlikely t appeal to all vvoters, but i hope it gets the nod. it's utterly brilliant.
    5. Sweeney Todd - not too likely. but i did love this film.
    i believe that if one actress can upset, it will be Kerri Russell for "Waitress." i think that the voters may remember her, as the story about director adrienne shelly is quite well known. she definetly deserves a nod.

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  4. Waitress would be a welcome upset, but not too likely....Juno is definitely vulnerable but has as good a shot as anything not named No Country for Old Men.....i have a feeling we're gonna see Zodiac pop up somewhere....probably in adapted screenplay or cinematography or editing...but who knows, maybe they like Fincher more than we expect....we shall see

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  5. As much as I liked it, I think Into The Wild will miss out on a BP nom, and if it does wrangle one, then TWBB will be left out in the proverbial cold.

    Also, I have an odd nagging feeling that somehoe Marion Cottilard will get snubbed as well...I dunno why. I haven't seen the movie.

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  6. If you haven´t seen La Vie en Rose, then I suggest you do before saying that you think Marion Cotillard will be snubbed.

    There´s NO WAY IN HELL she will be snubbed; not only has she won the Golden Globe, but also the Best Actress award in several critics groups - including LAFCA - and her performance is being THE MOST PRAISED of the year by the actors.

    Not only am I sure she will be nominated, but I also think she´s going to win.
    Christie has her Oscar and her performance is the kind that gets praised by critics (only);
    Page is too young, in a movie that´s too offbeat and light to make her a Best Actress winner.

    Cotillard´s role SCREAMS Oscar; plus no foreign actress has won since Sofia Loren (in 1961), and I believe that´s actually a positive thing for Cotillard...

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  7. I personally don't see Cotillard getting left out, it seems like the Actress category is more "set" than others this year. I agree Keri Russell would be a very welcome surprise however.

    I too see Juno not making the cut, TWBB seemed to have more momentum at just the right time. SAG makes Into the Wild a fairly sure thing.

    I can imagine a relative surprise in the Director category -- Lumet may well sneak in there. In Actor, Langella instead of Depp, Hirsch or Mortensen doesn't seem entirely improbable.

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  8. I this year seems ripe for one of the big boys not making it in for BP... I don't know why but my gut tells me American Gangster is going to get some love from the Academy. I keep getting this feeling that, despite the snubs at the guilds, it's going to get in for BP and Scott is going to get a nod for director. That, I think you might be looking at both Into the Wild and Juno not making the BP final cut. I don't know why... There isn't anything to indicate those statements arent' crazy... Still. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see a BP lineup of:
    American Ganster
    Atonment
    Michael Clayton
    No Country
    There Will Be Blood

    Maybe even a 3rd supposed big gun goes down and Sweeney Todd sneaks in instead of Clayton. Could be interesting.

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  9. Keep in mind also that many Academy voters are viewing the films on DVD screeners, rather than having seen them in a theater at screenings. Certain films play better on screener than others, which have to be seen in theaters for the film to have full impact.

    According to Sasha Stone, who has watched many of these films on DVD screeners: Michael Clayton plays very well on screener. I could see where American Gangster may play well on screener; plus they may want to honor Ridley Scott and Denzel Washington (remember, it's political and Denzel has many friends). I have a feeling that certain films such as Sweeney Todd, There Will Be Blood, etc. may lose their intensity being viewed on DVD screener as opposed to in a theater. That may make no difference at all; just pointing out that it could.

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  10. I never said I think she would be snubbed. I said I wouldnt be completely shocked if she was

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  11. I think Cotillard is going to win actually.

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  12. Michael Clayton definitely struck me as the perfect film to see on a screener

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  13. Yep, slobone...

    I think Cotillard is also going to win...

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  14. for BP: God I hope Into the Wild and The Diving Bell and Butterfly make it in. Everytime I think Into the Wild is safe I get an unsure feeling. I'm not so sure about Juno anymore or Atonement. One thing for sure of is Marion Cotillard is a shoe in! I think she will win the SAG as someone said earlier on the posts All the actors have praised her for her role in La Vie en Rose! if she wins the SAG which I am for her all the way then I think she will win the oscar! She deserves it out of any male/female performance period!

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  15. It seems the Marion Cotillard buzz is building up... and totally deserving too.

    Does anyone really think actors will want to honor Christie - in a good role, but small and nothing extraordinary (she´s done just as well before),
    Or Ellen Page - who´s a great actress, but a newcomer, in a role that may be too light or debatable to make her a 20-year-old Best Actress Winner...

    I´m pretty sure Marion will walk away with Oscar. And that´s justice.

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