January 22, 2010

Worried that 'The Hurt Locker' can't win Best Picture because of its low Box Office? Fear not...

...because it's making a proverbial killing on DVD. An article from Reuters (found here) gives a taste of that, but suffice to say, the film will not suffer nearly as much from a small gross as some people think. Will it be able to win Best Picture? Who knows, but it won't lose the race solely due to money, that's for sure.
-Thoughts on what the film's chances look like?


  1. Okay. This is it. I'm going out on a ledge here guys. Somebody hold on to my hand . . . As great as Avatar is, I think that the Academy may not give the Director and Best Picture Oscars to Cameron because of his apparent arrogance. There could be, and this is purely "gut feeling" stuff, a ground swell away from Cameron because it's all so big and so great and so successful, exactly like last time. I recall a lot of people getting shirty at his "I'm the king of the world" and minute's silence for the passengers of the Titanic speech last time. Maybe people don't want him up there a second time, maybe they want something else, such as The Hurt Locker (which I am yet to see, but from all your informed comments seems brilliant).

  2. I've been thinking:
    In most years, the Top 8 categories split for (usually) five movies. The most recent exceptions are '05 (Crash year, 6 way split) and '99 (American Beauty year, 4 way split).

    Let's call these categories locked (even if they aren't):
    Actor: Bridges - Crazy Heart
    Actress: Streep - Julie & Julia
    Supp. Actor: Waltz - Basterds
    Supp. Actress: Mo'Nique - Precious
    Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air

    I know those aren't completely locked, but they're pretty close. If Waltz were to lose it would probably be to Plummer. And if by some freak occurence Streep lost it could be to Bullock or Mulligan. If the people above won, they would win for movies that wouldn't have a chance at winning any of the other Top 8 categories. Meaning that with the "locks" (and alternatives) I listed, there is already a five way split.

    Now, the other categories.
    Original Screenplay: Locker or Basterds
    Director: Cameron or Bigelow
    Picture: Locker/Avatar/UitA/Basterds

    Assuming Bigelow were to win director (which I think she will), we would have a six way split, and depending on what would've won orig. screenplay, that movie would be represented elsewhere (Locker by Bigelow, Basterds by Waltz).

    Now think about Best Picture: If Up in the Air won, it's represented by adapted screenplay thus keeping the six way split; if Basterds won, it's represented by Waltz and possible Orig. Screenplay and keeps the six way split; if Hurt Locker wins it is represented by Bigelow and possibly Orig. screenplay; IF Avatar wins it is represented by nothing else in the Top 8 and makes the first seven way split in the Top 8 since I-don't-know-the-hell-when.

  3. Interesting point. In this rather unique year I wouldn't rule something like that out...

  4. fact: box office > DVD
    fact: in hollywood box office is the thing that counts, who cares 'bout the dvds.

  5. Actually, DVD is as valuable for hollywood, if not more, because of its length. If the concern is low ratings because not enough people saw The Hurt Locker, the fact that it's selling DVD's like it's a 100 million dollar flick alleviates that concern...