December 21, 2009

What are we to make of Avatar's opening weekend?

Well, this article in Cinemablend gives you a good idea of what the Box Office spells for James Cameron and his race of blue people:

Depending on who you ask, Avatar's estimated $73 million weekend haul is either right in line with studio expectations (given that it's not a sequel or an existing property), a disappointment (given how much it cost), or the second-highest December opening of all time (well, that one's actually a fact). But despite the fact that box office prognostication is a sport heavily focused on opening weekends, Avatar is likely to be that rare movie where opening weekend tells you virtually nothing about what will happen.

It's been stated over and over again (mostly by me) that James Cameron's last film, Titanic, quadrupled its opening weekend gross with two weeks of its release. It was one of those word-of-mouth successes that got bigger every time families gathered for Christmas dinner and found themselves discussing why Rose threw the diamond in the ocean at the end. And while Avatar isn't like Titanic in a lot of surface ways, it seems like a likely candidate to perform the same way: a slow burn. Why? Lots of reasons.

It takes word of mouth to get people used to blue people. Avatar hadn't been tracking all that well until a week ago, when critics saw the movie and told the world, wait, this is actually good. Now the adventurous moviegoers who saw it this weekend will do the same thing for their friends, an effect that will particularly be important for the crowds who don't trust critics as a rule.

It doesn't snow on Pandora... but it does on the Eastern seaboard. Avatar's grosses dipped significantly on Saturday in cities that were walloped by this weekend's blizzards. While it's fun to stay home and drink cocoa while the snow is coming down, once people get some time off for Christmas, they'll be more than ready to get out of the house.

Opening weekend belongs to the sequels; the rest belongs to the truly good ones. There's a reason that the holders of most box office records are sequels-- Transformers 2 made more than Transformers, The Dark Knight more than Batman Begins , and so on. Avatar wasn't a must-see this weekend among anyone but the geek-heavy crowds who have anticipated it for years, but again, once the word of mouth starts rolling, it'll become just as necessary a movie as the one with robots beating each other up.

There's lots of competition out there...but also lots of bored people. The weeks surrounding Christmas and New Years are great times to release movies, because no matter how much else is out there, there are a ton of people going to movies. And while most other films out there are targeting specific audiences-- Sherlock Holmes the men who love the character and Guy Ritchie, It's Complicated the women who want Meryl Streep's life, Alvin and the Chipmunks : The Squeakquel the kids who don't know matter-- Avatar is the one true four-quadrant movie out there. People go to movies in groups over Christmas, and this is the one you can guarantee will entertain everyone.

I'm obviously well in the tank for Avatar and rooting for its success, and hey, $73 million domestic plus another $160 internationally is nothing to sneeze it. But I'm seeing much, much bigger things for this one. You haven't seen the last of those blue people, not by a long shot.


-I pretty much agree with this article...thoughts?

22 comments:

  1. I didn't read the article yet but I just want to say (coming in with a negative attitude) I think Avatar deserves best picture victory this year. It's not my favorite but it's up there and it's the best.

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  2. fair enough, though I do encourage reading the article...

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  3. Fair points, let's see what happens. I hope it does better than those other films...

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  4. As long as there's no huge second week drop, it'll do quite well for itself...

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  5. As long as there's no huge second week drop, it'll do quite well for itself...

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  6. Word of mouth is definately spreading. What I think has seemed to hurt it's immediate success was the 3D. Most people have still yet to go out and experience the new 3D cinema, thinking it's the old "Woah something flew out of the screen at me" effect and not being keen on the old red and green glasses.

    Now people hear how amazing the effects are and the changes to 3D cinema, people are starting to get interested. A LOT of people are already into second visits and cinemas are starting to sell out. I think this article's correct. It will grow. Should be an interesting couple of weeks for the film.

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  7. The opening weekend was strong for a film no one outside the film community knew much about. It's going to grow, I know a lot of people who want to see it this week cuz they missed their chance due to the snowstorms. Your points on why it will grow are pretty spot on.

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  8. Today I went to see it for a second time and as it is Monday, I expected a few people in the theatre but it was crowded and the most interesting thing for me was the fact that there were a lot of 60 and 70 year old people. The buzz is getting stronger and stronger!
    Avatar for Best Picture!!! (party)

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  9. It's doing fine, considering it's over-performance in the non-american markets...

    It won't have near the legs Titanic had, though. Remember the millions of teenage girls that saw the film 20 times? Not happening for this one. Fanboys will see it multiple times, but not the average movie goer.

    Plus, the praise isn't universal. It's hovering around only the 80's on RT and very few critics have listed it in their top 5s of the year. Hell, both EW critics left it off their top 10s.

    It's a good film. I totally agree. It's just not Titanic.

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  10. EW hadn't seen it when they did the list, according to the article in the magazine.

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  11. Really? I must be missing it...

    On the top of page 85, it reads "James Cameron's 3-D epic didn't make our top 10 lists.", criticized the story and gave it a B grade.

    Did I miss something on another page? I'm not trying to be snarky, I'm just confused why you have that impression. I do love the film (and it might narrowly make my meaningless top 10 list)

    Anyways,

    Happy Holidays!

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  12. I suppose my interpretation (or mis-reading) was that when these lists were submitted (and they were online before the article in the magazine itself came out and reached my doorstep) the film had not yet been screened...sorry if I misled you, just how it read to me.

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  13. Not at all dude, I could definitely be wrong. I'm just curious about the critical consensus regarding the film.

    I'm apparently the only person on the planet that loved The Lovely Bones and loathed Paranormal Activity, so I'm not really in tune with the public this year anyways (Plus I loved Nine).

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  14. Listen, I have The Time Traveler's Wife, Funny People, and Capitalism: A Love Story are in my top 20 of the year, so who's to say that even the critics (assuming I count as one) are in tune with each other.

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  15. Well, you're not alone in loving "Capitalism" and even "Funny People". I haven't made my list yet, but "Funny People" is definitely in my top 20, and I think "Capitalism" may be in my top ten, as sad as that sounds...

    Can't say anything about "Time Traveler" since I haven't seen it.

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  16. I won't say where things are yet, just because I want to keep some suspense, and I'm not sure what to do with Avatar yet...

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  17. So true. I enjoyed time traveler and capitalism, but neither would even approach my top 20. I can see why people liked Funny People, but it just didn't do it for me. Much like The Road, I just don't think I "got it".

    I'll have to admit that I've had it out a bit for Avatar. The fan boy furvor reminded me way too much of the Paranormal Activy buzz. I was one of the first people to see it at an arclight Aint It Cool screening. After 5 hours in line and 2 hours in the film, I was furious at the 7 wasted hours and parking fee.

    I was sure the fake studio buzz would die and the critics would bash it. I was shocked when both audiences and critics turned it into the low budget indy darling of the year.

    So, maybe some of the passion on the issue was just battle scars from this summer. Nonetheless, Avatar is a great movie and I hope it does well.

    You aren't going to sell me on best picture, though, not with Up In The Air and The Hurt Locker in the race.

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  18. @aaron
    I loved The Lovely Bones as well. I haven't seen Nine, but The Lovely Bones actually made my top 10.

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  19. Stop with these critics. You are talking as if they define the whole world. They are a bunch of normal people stating their opinions. Actually 99% of the people don't care about the critics and havent't seen The Hurt Locker. Do you think that a small movie like this deserves the Best Picture award? I have always thought that this award should represent both quality and public opinion, and the public knows nothing og The Hurt Locker. This is why I have never thought that Titanic is overrated and that LA Confidential should have won the Oscar - when the whole world loves a movie you give it the Oscar.

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  20. I must confess that I thought Avatar bordered on being a waste of my time. The visuals were amazing, for sure, but for what? This movie was Dances With Wolves +The matrix + blue dye. And what was with all the politically-charged, hackneyed dialogue? Given the high quality of some of this year's films (the hurt locker, up in the air, food, Inc , etc), I would hate to see the best picture Oscar go to a movie as predictable and derivative as this.

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  21. My issues with it are similar. I don't see it winning, but it's a pretty surefire nominee...

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