I've spent enough time going over the race in the last year (and more recently, months) that anything could happen and I wouldn't be surprised, but that's just me...
Bullock WON'T win, and 'Basterds' will do original screenplay.
Neither would be huge surprises (unless you mean Streep not winning either), but those could certainly occur.
Does Nine take anything by surprise? maybe Costume? even though i didn't like the film it was one of if not the most beautiful film of the year.
It's still my biggest wish that Up in the Air will win best picture along with screenplay and best actor. So just because I'm in love with the picture I'll say that Clooney and UITA will win big-time.
Wild Things...that would certainly count as a surprise.
Michael, I'd be just as happy with that, if not more so, but I think it'll just have to settle for screenplay...
As I've said earlier, my big upset prediction is Firth over Bridges.Hard to pick any other upsets, because so much is still (relatively) close. Tarintino or Boal for Original Screenplay. Streep or Bullock (maybe Mulligan) for Actress. Bigalow or Cameron for Director. Avatar or Hurt Locker for picture.Should make for an exciting year.
Gabby takes Best Actress.
and John...that would certainly count as an upset.
I don't think he will win, but I do believe that every voter though about Jeremy Renner saying "I'm sorry", just before voting.Also I really hope Distric 9 wins Adapted Screenplay.
I've been trying to come up with a method for Renner to win Best Actor...and I'm not nearly smart enough to find one. (I did the same for Mackie outgunning Damon for a Best Supporting nod. That was a little easier to dismiss, sadly, due to Damon's status and Mackie's lack-thereof.)That's one of the tougher parts of the Oscars for me, the "Career Achievement" mantra.Then again, I haven't seen "Crazy Heart", so I won't assume Bridges doesn't deserve to be such a heavy favorite and front runner. Although I HATE when people get something that is "due" to them. Best example? Of course it's Pacino hoo-hahing his way to robbing Denzel in Malcolm X.However, despite my desire to see an upset or two, I am a little nauseated at more than few (*cough LA Times*) Oscar bloggers who feel Bigelow is a lock ONLY as a woman and not due to her near flawless direction. Going as far as saying that if a man directed this, it wouldn't be such a big deal. That's too easy and too sexist a comment to make.If this were, let's say, a movie the caliber of The Messenger (very well-respected but not an Oscar frontrunner), Bigelow wouldn't have the same "let's just reward a woman and get it over with" mojo far too many careless bloggers have labeled the race for Best Director with.Fortunately, such writers are nowhere near to be found on this site. Kudos to you all on another outstanding year. (I'd also like to note if Hurt Locker does win Best Picture, you all deserve one HELL of a pat on the back in the field of predicting Oscars.)I'm curious Joey, what do you think of the slanted-reporting from the LA Times on the Best Picture race?
One small upset prediction...Take It All from Nine upsetting The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart.AMPAS loves Cotillard and I suspect there might be some guilt over her performance getting lost in the vague space between lead and supporting.
Hr. Cules- I do think Renner is the #2 pick
Clement- First, thanks again for the compliments. If we end up being right about The Hurt Locker, it'll be a nice pat on the back, but hey, we're about who WILL win, not who we want to win.As for the LA Times reporting, it's the easy story, so that's what they go with. It takes effort to go into detail, and big media doesn't tend to have time for that. Just look at the Kevin Smith Southwest Airlines story. Kathryn Bigelow winning because she's a women is a quick soundbite/blurb, just like Smith just being fat, and not the airline messing up, is the easier story. It is what it is.
Aaron- I don't see it, but hey, who knows?
Final PredictsPicture: Avatar; Runner-up: Hurt LockerDirector: Bigelow, Runner-up: CameronActor: Bridges, Runner-up: FirthActress: Bullock, Runner-Up: MulliganSupporting Actor: Waltz, Runner-Up: HarrelsonSupporting Actress: Mo'nique, Runner-Up: GyllenhaalOriginal Screenplay: Hurt Locker, Runner-Up: Inglourious BasterdsAdapted Screenplay: Up in the Air, Runner-Up: District 9Animated: Up, Runner-Up: Fantastic Mr. FocForeign Language: An Education, Runner-Up: White RibbonDocumentary: The Cove, Runner-Up: Food Inc.Score: Up, Runner-Up: AvatarSong: Weary King, Runner-Up: Take It AllSound Editing: Avatar, Runner-Up: Hurt LockerSound Mixing: Avatar, Runner-Up: Hurt LockerArt Direction: Avatar, Runner-Up: NineCinematography: Avatar, Runner-Up: Hurt LockerMakeup: Star Trek, Runner-Up: Young VictoriaCostume: Bright Star, Runner-Up: Young VictoriaFilm Editing: Hurt Locker, Runner-Up: AvatarVisual: Avatar, District 9
An Education isn't eligible for Foreign Film, but aside from that, it could happen...
Matt, you may be right, I hate to say... Hate your picks, I'm gunning for actress upsets (gabby sidibe, jeremy renner?), best picture "upset" (the hurt locker), film editing (inglourious)
I meant to put A Prophet not An Education, but it didn't win so I guess it doesn't matter now